URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALLENTOWN PENNSYLVANIA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF DOVER DELAWARE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
AT 225 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CHESTER COUNTY AND DELAWARE COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN BURLINGTON COUNTY AND NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS AND IT WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
I had posted earlier about a potential severe weather event for tomorrow in our area. This still looks to be on track. Today, numerous severe thunderstorms and tornadoes have taken place in the Upper Midwest and now into the Ohio River Valley. These storms will move east and start to affect the the area overnight. While rain and possible some minor thunderstorms move in, the real event will be tomorrow afternoon.
The general breakdown will be heavy rains to the north and severe weather south. Central Jersey is going to be kind of a dividing line. The whole event hinges on the placement of a warm front. The warm front will be the dividing line between the two outcomes. If you are south of the warm front, you can expect rain and severe weather. North of the front, it will be a primarily heavy rain event. Areas north are looking at 2-4" of rain while areas to the south are looking 1-2" and the severe weather. The severe weather will be severe thunderstorms, dangerous lightening, hail, damaging winds and even a tornado threat. Remember too, our area has already received a lot of rain, and any additional can spell bad news on saturated grounds and rivers.
As of now, that warm front is poised to set up in north central NJ. As with all systems, timing will be key. A lot can change, but it would be a good idea to pay attention tomorrow. Having an alerting mechanism will be a good idea tomorrow either on your phone, radio or TV in case you get one of these storms.As always, I will be doing updates on twitter (@townerswxpage) and facebook (Towner's Weather PAGE).
A vigorous disturbance moves in tomorrow bringing more flooding rains. This time though, this will be accompanied by severe weather. Heavy rains will blanket the area, although more may fall north from NNJ/NYC through New England. 2-4" will be a good bet up there. Further south, we are looking at another 1-2" but will take the brunt of the severe weather. Heavy rains, dangerous lightning, strong winds, hail and even a tornado threat will be present. I will have more to come on this in a more detailed post this evening. Tomorrow is looking nasty!
Extremely heavy rains incoming. Includes Burlington and Camden Counties as well.
LOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
836 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
NJC021-023-025-029-035-101530-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.W.0072.130610T1236Z-130610T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MERCER NJ-SOMERSET NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-MONMOUTH NJ-OCEAN NJ-
836 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
* UNTIL 1130 AM EDT
* AT 830 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY. RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN
REPORTED AS THIS RAIN MOVED THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. STREET
FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED AND SMALL FEEDER STREAMS COULD
EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES GIVEN THE ALREADY WET CONDITIONS FROM RAIN
LAST FRIDAY.
A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER
DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.
LAT...LON 3981 7407 3955 7423 3972 7439 4013 7458
4018 7469 4015 7472 4034 7494 4043 7475
4051 7480 4051 7478 4062 7470 4072 7472
4076 7457 4065 7452 4066 7440 4060 7444
4060 7421 4047 7425 4045 7396
$$
JJM
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
310 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ008>010-012>027-PAZ070-071-
101>106-070900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0002.130607T0800Z-130608T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...
FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...
MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...
ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...
MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
310 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN DELAWARE...DELAWARE BEACHES...INLAND
SUSSEX...KENT AND NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
CAROLINE...CECIL...KENT MD...QUEEN ANNES AND TALBOT. IN NEW
JERSEY...ATLANTIC...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY...CAMDEN...CAPE
MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN...CUMBERLAND...EASTERN
MONMOUTH...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...
MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...OCEAN...SALEM...SOMERSET...
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...EASTERN CHESTER...EASTERN
MONTGOMERY...LOWER BUCKS...PHILADELPHIA...UPPER BUCKS...
WESTERN CHESTER AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
* LOCATIONS...A PORTION OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MOST OF NEW
JERSEY...ALL OF DELAWARE AND MARYLAND`S EASTERN SHORE.
* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
GENERAL RAINFALL 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. IF AMOUNTS EXCEED
3 INCHES...THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING INCREASES.
* THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS GREATER WITHIN THE URBAN AREAS OF
THE METRO INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
* THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO PRIMARY TIMES WHEN EXCESSIVE SHORT TERM
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
$$
DRAG
As many of you know, Tropical Storm Andrea was born yesterday, but not really. Andrea started off in the Pacific ocean and actually hit Mexico about a week ago. her Pacific name was Barbara and was classified as a Cat 1 Hurricane just prior to landfall. Since then, she moved across Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, she meandered north and officially became a Tropical Storm yesterday after the US Air Forces' Hurricane Hunters flew into the storm to better sample her energy. What they found was enough to warrant the naming of the storm. its rare for a storm to move from the Pacific to the Atlantic, but Barbara / Andrea is one of the few. Her name would have changed regardless even if she had not fallen below naming criteria in the Gulf of Mexico.
Currently, Andrea is ready to make landfall into Florida. From there she will track across Florida and up the eastern seaboard. Andrea is currently packing 60mph winds, heavy rains and even some tornadoes. Flash Flood Watches have already been posted in parts of the area (although not NJ yet). The biggest impacts for us will be rain. Andrea will pass to our east. You can remember from storms of the past, that the most severe weather is usually located on the eastern side, so that will be out over the ocean. We will however have copious amounts of rain. We are looking at potentially 2-4" of rain. Winds will be present, but for the most part will not be very significant.
Rain moves in tonight and will last through late Friday Night. Showers may stick around for a period of time Saturday morning. The heaviest rains will fall during the day on Friday. As usual, updates on twitter and facebook. Welcome to the tropical weather season!
Last week, I spent some time writing some thoughts of the Weather Channels' Mike Bettes being involved in an accident where he and his crew were knocked off the road by a tornado. Mike Bettes is best known has an on-air personality on the Weather Channel. In an attempt to harness some ratings, Mike was put out into a tornado, representing the Weather Channel. Cameras rolling, we were able to get live reports once again from the ever increasing phenomenon of "extreme weather." The Weather Channel has gotten into this over the past decade or so. They send parts of their team to the areas of big weather events. We have seen it for hurricanes, winter storms, wildfires and now tornadoes. Each time, seemingly getting more dangerous, the audience is kept in awe over the live feeds. The willingness of people to watch, drives the market and heightens the dangers as more and more compete for the ratings. I said my piece on the Weather Channel and their close call with a tornado two days ago here: Weather Channel Rant (click)
Here is Mike and his crew's car:
The other side of the media hype for ratings is the scientific side. Storm Chasers actually chase storms for a purpose. There are chasers out there to learn more about storms, lightening, tornadoes, hail, winds etc etc. This information that is collected will hopefully be able to help predict, model, and interpret severe weather so that storms can be better predicted, warning times can increase and lives can be saved......lives being saved. While we get caught up in the adrenaline rush of seeing these live feeds of those out seeking a thrill, there are those there with a purpose.
Yesterday morning, I learned of the death of Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras (Tims son) and Carl Young. For many, the names will not sound familiar. For those that know, one of the greats was lost. I first started following Tim, like many, watching Discovery Channels "StormChasers" show. This is also where I started following Reed Timmer and Sean Casey. While Reed and Sean both had the cool cars ( Dominator and TIV) which resembled tanks rather than cars, it was Tim who had the White Truck with the cargo door in the back. Reed and Sean both try and get into the tornadoes path and try to intercept for their research. Tim and his crew would get into the path, drop some probes and get out of the way. Reed and Sean were the adrenaline pumpers and Tim was just kinda that guy who was there for the research and was the filler between Reed and Sean. Tim was always the cautious one, playing it safe, always leaving an escape route in case something out of the blue happened. He was the one who preached safe practices and limited his risk as much as he could. He was there to research tornadoes and hail. He had some groundbreaking research that has yet to be released. His contributions to the field were astronomical and we will learn more about his research in the years to come. On Friday, while deployed for a tornado in El Reno, OK Tim, his son, Paul, and long time co worker Carl were swept off the highway and killed. In this tornado, there was 16 people killed all together. Another death along the highway involved is a mother and her child.
Tims truck:
Yes, saving lives is a good thing. Countless times the story is the same; tornado comes, areas are devastated and there is always a fatality count. More and more though, we are finding lower and lower deaths. This could be directly related to the good that storm chasing brings. The countless research probes launched, the cameras, etc etc. We have learned a lot from the people willing to risk it all for research, and there remains a lot more to learn. Hopefully as time goes on, we can improve warnings and forecasts and more lives can be saved.
