Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
2013-12-08T10:28:00GMT-0500
2013-12-08T14:00:00GMT-0500

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...A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AN AREA OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN FOR A WHILE RESULTING IN SNOW DEVELOPING. HOWEVER AS SOME MILDER AIR ARRIVES ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET TOWARD EVENING, STARTING FIRST FROM PHILADELPHIA ON SOUTH AND EAST AND THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD. AS SOME MILDER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY IN THIS EVENING, SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN INLAND WITH TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN OCCURS FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE A COATING TO AN INCH. IF TRAVELING THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, BE PREPARED FOR DEVELOPING SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES AND CHANGING VISIBILITIES. REMEMBER, BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES TEND TO BECOME SLIPPERY FIRST DURING WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

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Camden; Gloucester; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Salem; Somerset

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Corey

coreytowner@gmail.com

Sunday Night / Monday

It appears the area will have its first winter weather event of the season. While I am not expecting much accumulation, it does appear rather likely that we will have some frozen precipitation. We have a rather cold airmass overhead now, and will have a storm moving into the area from the south. The big question with these events are how fast the warmer air of the northerly moving storm can overcome the cold air in place. Typically, with these types of storms, you will see precipitation to the south, but it will crawl on a northern advancement. This is due to the evaporational cooling in the upper atmosphere. Our cold airmass will take some time to saturate before precipitation starts to fall to the ground. Precipitation will start in the form of snow and will change over to sleet and freezing rain and then all rain.

As of now, I think the snow starts in South Jersey late morning and then into the PHL - Trenton corridor in the early afternoon. Places in Northern NJ may have to wait until evening time for the precipitation to start falling. I expect a coating in areas of Southern NJ (away from the coast) and a coating to as much as 2" around C NJ. My other thinking with these types of storms is that a changeover usually occurs prior to the modeled time. So, a quicker changeover would lead to lesser accumulations, but travel could be just as bad if not worse. I think S NJ goes over to rain by late afternoon, CNJ by evening and Northern NJ overnight. Eventually, the rain will encompass all areas and will quickly wash away any accumulations.

After this storm, we turn our attention to another round of precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday. More to come on that after tomorrow.

Tonight / Sunday

While temperatures were fairly warm this morning, a cold front has pushed through. Temperatures have been steadily falling all day and will continue to do so. Meanwhile, precipitation is pushing into the area and may be around through early Saturday morning. The rain / snow line is currently around Mt. Pocono, PA and pushing SE. Will it make it down far enough to the area to perhaps see some frozen precipitation? We will have to watch and see how it moves over the next couple hours. I have a feeling we may see a bit. Areas in NW NJ will stand the best chances for a changeover. I am not expecting any accumulations down here.

Once this storm pushes out, all eyes will turn to Sunday. A lot of talk has been made about a significant ice storm. While this will be the case for C PA, C MD, WV, W VA, we will only start as frozen precipitation before turning over to a cold rain. How long the cold air stays in place before being nudged out will be the question. For now, I think we see a start of snow which will change over to sleet and freezing rain and then rain overnight. I do think we may be able to sneak an inch or two of snow out before the changeover. After that storm pushes out, we will be heading into a rather cold period. 

More to come throughout the night on the rain snow line and more thoughts on Sunday