We are transitioning now from a deep cold in which we were in the midst of the arctic trough. The trough will be relaxing back north and we are going to be heading into a more split flow across the area. This active pattern will lead the way on a number of storm chances coming up this week. The problem with this setup though will be the storm tracks and cold air. While our chances increase for storms, so does the volatility of the forecast. We are back into the challenging storm track, rain/snow line, mix precipitation etc. And, with the number of storms that will be present, long range forecasting will be challenged because everything will be based upon the setup from the previous storm. In other words, if a variable changes with storm 1, storm 2 will change on the models, along with storm 3 etc, etc. The best approach will be to take it one storm at a time.
As of now, Saturday and Sunday both like nice, with temperatures well above freezing. Our next storm will impact the area on Monday, but the spread of solutions is still really wild. The GFS model keeps all precipitation to the south, will the NAM brushes S NJ, the Canadian is a bit further north and gives the area a period of light to moderate snow and the EURO is the furthest north and brings rain into the equation from about Philly East and route 78 south. So, my approach over the next week will be to take storms one at a time. The period looks active, but storms will be changing every run on the models. Stay tuned as I will be posting updates as needed!
