Don't look now

Another major east coast storm is being shown on the Euro model ( the
same one that had the last bomb at this hour range. Right now, it has
snow pushing into the region in 156 hours (next Thursday-Friday) More
to come!

2010 Blizzard Start Meriden, CT

A quick video I shot at the start of the heavier snow and winds in Meriden, CT



Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Heavy snow band

For those of you who are fortunate enough to have one of those heavy
snow bands park over you, 6-10" overnight is probably a good bet

Thunder snow

Reported in Plainsboro Twp, NJ

Thundersnow

Being reported in Fairfield, NJ. Hoping to get some video to post soon!

Heavy snow bands....

Have set up shop all over central NJ. These bands are stacked up out
to the ocean and keep developing. Going to be stuck under those heavy
snows for a while.... 1-2' will be commonplace

Heavy snow

1-2"/hr snow bands are moving onshore over coastal NJ. These bands
willing over the entire Philly-NYC corridor between 2-3pm. Snowfall
rates will increase and chances for thunder snow begin

Snow being reported...

In Florence Twp, Plainsboro and Trenton. Expect snow to start and
become moderate pretty quickly. Also, some real intense bands are
coming on shore down by Cape May, NJ. These bands will become
commonplace as the storm intensifies over the area.

Also hear the NFL is looking to postpone the Eagles game.... Hope they
don't, would be nice to watch the game in the snow

Once the snow starts....

expect it to become pretty moderate pretty quickly. There are really good signs of intense snow bands and thundersnow setting up for the afternoon and evening hours. Please send any thundersnow video or heavy snow pictures to:

coreytowner.photos@picasaweb.com

Thanks in advance

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Developing Snows

Snow has pushed into Southern NJ and is making a push north. Precipitation is moving almost due north (which is a good thing, if you like snow). One thing for sure, it appears that the storm is really intensifying off the NC coast, evident in thunderstorm development showing up on radar. What needs to be watched now is obviously where the storm tracks, but also the speeds. There is a chance this thing could stall, and dump a heavy amount of snow over an area. Where exactly that happens, we will have to watch where that sets up. I also mentioned about thundersnow last night, which is becoming very evident and plausible today. In fact, the Storm prediction Center has placed a high likely hood of mesoscale banding to set up shop over NJ. See link:

Mesoscale banding is where intense snowfall rates will set up on the average of 1-2" per hour, and is the best likely hood of where thundersnow can develop.

Another thing to look at, the winds will really begin to crank this afternoon and night. This will create near zero visibility, considerable amounts of blowing and drifting snow and wide scale power outages. Please prepare yourselves should the power be lost for an extended period of time.

I am still thinking 10-16" statewide, 16" in the areas where the heavy snow banding sets up.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

FYI

The central pressure of the storm is progged to be around 980mb off
the coast of DelMarVa, which is the equivalent of a category 1
Hurricane! So, essentially, we are looking at a strengthening category
1 Hurricane of snow!

Getting closer

Snow has been reported in Waldorf, MD and on the outskirts of DC. This
may be a couple hours earlier than thought, so, for the NJ area expect
snow to be falling when you wake up. Man, the more I am looking at
models, I really think thundersnow is going to be commonplace tomorrow
afternoon and evening!

Models are all still on track, not a matter if, but when!

Impressive, intense storm brewing

All indications are we will be waking up to snowy scene tomorrow.
Conditions will worsen through the day, reaching near blizzard
conditions at times. Intense snowfall rates of 1-2"/hour can also be
expected in the more intense bands that set up. I would anticipate a
snow globe scene tomorrow night in Philly for the Eagles game. Also,
thundersnow can also not be ruled out in the intense bands. All in
all, I think between 10-16" falls, 16" in the more prolific snow
bands. The winds will also be quite strong, especially when the storm
starts cranking and I would not be surprised to see Mt Holly NWS raise
blizzard warnings tomorrow afternoon! Traveling will be treacherous,
and do to the amount of snow that will fall, and the strong winds,
expect scattered power outages.

Enjoy the rest of the day! More to come!

Oh, and

a great re-has by NBC 10 Philadelphia Meteorologist Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz on the model madness this week!

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Big_Changes_in_Snow_Predictions_Going_Into_Potential_Storm_Philadelphia-112445454.html

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Storm Update

Wow, the craziness of the models this week. We have been on a rollercoaster of solutions, but there appears to be a consensus formed. All major modeling now shows a significant East Coast Snowstorm. This storm has watches and warnings issued from NE Mississippi to Coastal Maine. This will truly be a Nor'Easter!

Look for snow to overspread the area Sunday Morning and will gradually intensify to the peak of the storm in the late afternoon and evening hours. Snow will taper off early Monday morning and we should be waking up to 8-12" of snow on the ground. Shifts in the storm could increase or decrease the amounts. I am going with those numbers now. Best wishes for a Merry Christmas!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Midnight US NAM Run

The NAM model has completed its cycle for the midnight run. Clear trends are showing up, as this model has shifted a bit westward as well. Upper atmosphere dynamics are looking really good and probably do not represent what the surface has on the model run. Still looking much more positive for a decent hit! Oh, this run also buries Cape Cod and Boston!

Next up, the American GFS run, which initializes in about a half hour. I am hoping to see a similar output as it did this afternoon!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Test

Test, Test, test, Test, Test

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Quick update

With most of the models showing this storm off the coast, and effecting Eastern New England, there is still a chance of the area receiving a light snowfall during the day tomorrow. A small consolation, but may make things look nice. There is also still some monitoring that needs to be done due to the fact that the entire premise of the modeled forecast comes down to timing. We are still 36-48 hours away and one piece that is too fast, too slow, stronger, weaker can make a difference. We shall see what the day brings today.

**UPDATE** Just when things look bad, the GFS model has now pushed further west, with a 980mb low 100 miles off Deleware. Arg, palpatations starting **


Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Storm Update (not good for snow lovers)

The mighty Euro model has just completed its run showing a track well off shore, maybe not even affecting coastal areas. This is a serious hit to the snow lovers dream of having snow on Christmas Weekend. Very disappointing...I will continue to follow it for any further updates

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Storm Update

Today should be the day the weather models are able to obtain more concrete data, and bigger data sets. Hopefully, this allows for more cohesion between the models for a solution. Overnight model runs still brought the potential for a significant snow storm to the area. I will have more after the midday runs and the Euro run early afternoon!


Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Quick Update

Model runs today show clear signs that the GFS model is trending
towards the more robust and impressive Euro model. Tonight and
tomorrow runs will be especially important because our storm will be
entering land over California and there will be better data that will
be gathered. Stay tuned!

Oh boy

Well, the noon time weather models are in. We have a possible flinch in the model war. The GFS model i was talking about this morning, has now moved to being a minor event for the area. The EURO model, well, anyone that wants snow, it just spit out a HUGE snowstorm. A storm that, if verified, would wreak havoc on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine, an absolute paralyzing system is being portrayed. This is also something like the 5th consecutive run the EURO model has shown the almost identical projection......yeah, I am getting a little excited! Still looking more and more like a Sunday into Monday event now.

More to come.

Corey Towner towners
weatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Santa Storm Update....

Well, interesting turn of events yesterday on the model runs. There is now a split on the upcoming weekend storm. We have one model, the rather reliable EURO model, depicting a full scale, all out east coast blizzard. It has also been very bullish on its last couple of runs. Then, we have the American GFS model which is showing a totally suppressed storm that exits off the SE coast and out to sea. It has been pretty staunch on its stance as well. The other models fall in between the Euro and GFS.

One thing is for sure, this is no longer a Christmas Eve into Christmas Day storm. The trends on all models is to keep precipitation out of the area until late Christmas Afternoon/Evening at the earliest. In fact, the Euro does not have precipitation starting until early Sunday morning. To me, we want this to be a slower moving storm like the Euro depicts. This gives time for things to phase and setup allowing for a east coast snowstorm. If it is a faster moving storm, then all the pieces may not fall into place, and realistically we could see the storm move off the coast. This exact scenario is becoming the norm on the east coast. We either get the full monty, or we get nothing. The 3-6", 4-8" storms are becoming less and less common and we either get 12"+ or nothing. Truth be told, a nice 3-6" snowfall would be great on Christmas Day, that's all I want.

In any case, where do we go. Well, it is a wait and see game of chicken between the EURO model and the GFS model. Eventually, one of them will flinch and we can get a better understanding of what may occur. For now, keep it in the back of your mind that a snowstorm can occur this weekend. Also, at the same time, prepare yourself for the dissapointment of temperatures in the mid 30's with partly cloudy skies this weekend!

More to come!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

"Santa Storm"

Must give credit to a coworker who coined this phrase........ the overnight models are still showing the threat for the Christmas Day storm. For now, that is all I am focusing on. The minor details can work themselves out over the next few days. I am more concerned with the models, and having them consistently showing a threat. There are a lot of variables that will lead up to this storm, and if one does not pan out, it could throw the storm off.

It will probably be today that you will start to hear the news media begin their hyping of the storm. take it all with a grain of salt, nothing is set in stone now, and we have some ways to go. More to come.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

White Christmas

Weather models still showing a potential for a white Christmas in the
area. There has been some waffling about how it comes together, but
still looks like we stand a decent chance of seeing a White Christmas!
It has been a long time since the area has had a true White Christmas
and it will definitely be something I am looking forward too! More to
come during the week!

I AM DREAMING OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS.....

Ok, time to look forward to see whats on tap for chances of snow this week. There appears to be a clipper poised to move through the area Tues/Wednesday timeframe, but will have very little precipitation as it will dry up as it crosses over the Appalachian Mtns.

And, its also time to start focusing on Christmas!!!! Yes, thats right, models are pointing towards a Christmas Day storm! Something we have not had in this area for a long, long time! In fact, in my 33 years, I can remember the amount of White Christmases I have had on one hand. I am not talking rain that changes to snow, I am talking Bing Crosby White Christmas, from start to finish. The weather models have been pretty bullish on the idea of a Christmas Day storm. This is something like 8 or 9 consecutive model runs that have shown it....a little more consistency than this last storm. Anyways, the potenital is there for a big east coast snowstorm! Stay tuned!

I am officially excited and hope this pans out. I will give up the entire winter to have a foot of snow on Christmas Day!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Storm dead for tomorrow

Storm cancel, models and observations place this storm developing too
far out to sea to affect the area. Colder temperatures to remain in
place. Next storm to watch, 6 days from now as models are suggesting a
potential snow event. It's 6 days out, so for now, it's eye candy.

Weekend Storm on life support

Bad news for snow lovers. A consensus has been made with all the
weather models showing our weekend storm will be a fish storm (out to
sea) and will have no effects on us. Waiting for the night models to
come in and we can officially put this storm 6 feet under.

Discouraging overnight model runs

Wow is all I can say about how all the weather models are handling
this weekends snowstorm. They are all over the place. Even the models
which have been more trustworthy are wild. This, making for a
potentially dangerous situation because it has really gone to a
storm/no storm scenario. There are a couple features that seem to be
playing into their respective outcomes and we should learn more with
today's runs. I am looking for more consensus between the models
before getting amped up. Hopefully today gets us to where we need to
be, but my thinking is we are losing this storm. Hopefully we see some
encouragement today

Snowstorm Chances Increasing

Models are coming into better agreements for a good hit on Sunday for the entire DC-BOS corridor. More to come.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Upcoming weekend

A return to colder temperatures have started today and will las
through the foreseeable future. A couple snow showers today around the
area. Quick note, weather models showing a potential winter storm for
next weekend. Still 7 days out, so no need to get crazy, just wanted
to give everyone the potential heads up. I will be following and
posting during the week.

Corey

Some Light Snow Today

There will be some light snow and snow showers over the area today. With temperatures being so cold, it will not take much for the snow to accumulate on surfaces. We are not looking at significant accumulations, but enough for things to look nice! Be careful on the roads, any accumulation will make slick travel

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Welcome Back

Just wanted to let everyone know, I am back and ready for another exciting Winter Season. Just a quick thought.... I am pretty sure this year, in terms of snow, will not match what we did last year. I see this pattern being one of more cold air while its dry, and warm when storms approach, and back to cold after the storm departs. While this does not rule out the chance for big storms, I think we end up with a lot of the snow to mix to rain back to snow scenarios this Winter.

Case in point, this weekend. While it has been cold over the past week, not escaping the 30's, I am anticipating temps getting to the upper 40's and low 50's Sunday when a low pressure approaches the area. Then, when this storm passes it gets Vodka cold for next week...we will barely escape the 20's for highs.

With the storm moving into the area Saturday Night, it may start as a brief period of snow, but will change over to rain for the majority of the storm. This storm will pass to the west of us, known as a "Lakes Cutter" due to the fact it will move towards the Great Lakes. Being on the eastern flank, puts us in the warm sector. What we would like to see is a nice blocking low pressure up around Greenland to keep the cold air dammed in over us, which could have lead to a more prolonged snow or mix event before changing over to rain. Without that blocking low, the cold air over us now simply moves away as the Lakes Cutter pushes warmer air into the area.



Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

A Real Gullywasher upcoming

By now, you have probably heard it is supposed to rain tomorrow. This event is looking more and more impressive as the day goes on. We have a system moving north off the coast of Florida which is bringing plenty of rain. Look for rain to start early tonight and increase in intensity as the night wears on. The winds will also increase as the system moves closer. Gusts tomorrow will be in the neighborhood of 35-45mph. Also, there is a potential for some embedded thunderstorms to develop with the storm. Latest estimates from the HPC have upwards of 6" of rain for the area over the next two days. The NWS has also posted a flood watch for basically the entire area.





Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Earl and the Weekend

Well, we are now in the home stretch to shorter days, colder temperatures and SNOW! No doubt, this summer has been oppressive.

Anyways, Hurricane Earl is taking aim on the Outer Banks of North Carolina and will pose real problems in the way of flooding and winds. It appears Earl will stay off the Jersey Coast spareing inland areas of the worst. Coastal areas will still have beach erosion and wind damage due to the fact that tropical force winds are extending over 200 miles from the eye. From the Jersey shore, the next target will be extreme Eastern Long Island and then a potential hit on Cape Cod (which may have the worst of all areas on the eastern seaboard).

Don't look now, but there is also a conveyor belt of sorts of storms forming back to the coast of Africa. There are 4 storms lined up now, three of which are named! Definitely looks to be an active second half of hurricane season!

After Earl passes, this weekend will be absolutely gorgeous! So get out and enjoy it! We are talking sun, high in the mid to upper 70's and LOW humidity!

Plus, its opening college football weekend, and the NFL is only a week away!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Weather Pictures

I have started putting together two picture albums, one of winter weather events and one of severe weather events. The albums are located here:

Severe Weather- http://picasaweb.google.com/coreytowner/SevereWeatherEvents?feat=directlink

Winter Weather Events- http://picasaweb.google.com/coreytowner/WinterWeatherEvents?feat=directlink

If anyone has any pictures they would like to contribute, please send them to:

coreytowner.photos@picasaweb.com

Just maker sure to include your name (so I can give you credit) and the location of the picture.


Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

The Three H's

Don't expect this heat and humidity to leave anytime soon. We are pretty well locked into this pattern and there will be little relief. Even if a cold front moves through and triggers some rain, don't expect copious amounts of rain in the foreseeable future. Even on days where the temperatures drop into the low 80's, don't expect it to last as it will be short lived. It appears the upper 80's and 90's will rule the rest of the summer. In addition, little rain will lead to drought restrictions as some towns already have them in place. The other foreseeable problem will be the strain of the electrical grid as everyone's AC units will be cranking. Just remember, December 21 is the first day of winter!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Hot and Humid

hot and humid conditions will be moving in, and relief will not show up until around Tuesday of next week.

Corey Towner townersweatherpage.blogspot.com twitter.com/coreytowner

Severe Weather 06062010

Believe It Or Not

I am in Mt Laurel, NJ and there is snow falling from the sky! Bring it! Mother Nature, you have been awesome to us this winter!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Heavy Rains moving in

It appears we are going to have another round of heavy rains moving in later today. We are poised again to see inches of rain. It is looking more and more likely we are going to see between 2-4" of rain. This is really bad news for local rivers and streams which are already stressed from past storms. There can be some significant flooding throughout the area.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Heavy Rains

There are some areas of very heavy rain and thunderstorms moving into
the area. Possible flash flooding may occur in some of those areas of
poor drainage. In addition, poor visibility will be present in the
heavier areas of rain.

Quite a month, a snowstorm and out first two thunderstorms of the year!

FREAK SNOW TONIGHT?

As the whacky winter continues, it appears it will remain just as whacky. Over the past few days, I have been keeping an eye on a storm that was progged to move well south of the area. Over the past few days, it has trended closer and closerto the east coast. Even up until this morning, it has been progged to be off the coast enough for no preciptation.

I really intrigued right now by the radar and what is moving north. I am impressed souch that I actually think we may have a shot at some accumulating snow tonight! Looks like precipitation moves in later on the evening as a mix of rain an snow. As the temps lower, it should become all snow and potentially accumulate 1-3" through morning. It will have a very difficult time accumulating on the pavement due to the warm temperatures today. More to come.


Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Hawaii

Hawaii is preparing for an imminent tsunami. Major news services are
covering live

Chile Earthquake

There has been an 8.8 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Chile.
There have also been numerous aftershocks. A Tsunami WARNING is in
effect for the entire Pacific region, including Hawaii. Cal, Ore, Wash
and the BC section of Canada is not included. Hawaii is bracing for
Tsunami conditions around 1100am their time.

Information from Chile is scarce as most power is out. Twitter,
facebook, ustream all have info in addition to the major news networks.
(

Energizer Bunny

We still have nice banding of snow that should be pushing through and
will continue to change between light ad moderate to sometimes heavy
snow. We will probably pick up another 1-2"

Although the amounts may not be there as a substantial storm, anyone
who was awake around midnight to 2 am were witness to near blizzard
conditions with very heavy snow. It's tough to tell how much we have
since it's been blowing all over the place.

The shear dynamics of this storm were incredible and it will be a
storm that I will not forget. Very impressive.

Anyways, moderate snows through noon, and then snow showers persist
through the rest of the day and night.

Overnight

Snow has really begun to pick up in intensity and the winds are really whipping. Expect these conditions to continue through tomorrow's rush hour. Snow has FINALLY started sticking to pavement surfaces, so we should start to see rapid accumulations. expect 6-8" overnight. This storm should also last into the day tomorrow :)

Oh, and Lightning has been reported in Freehold, NJ!!! Be on the lookout for that and thundersnow. Intense bands are starting to make their way into the area!

Here We Go!!!

looks like moderate to heavy precipitation along with windy conditions are settling in just in time for rush hour. While the snow has been light for most of the late morning and early afternoon and little accumulation has taken place on pavement, things will be drastically deteriorating.

Radar is backbuilding over much of the area as the low pressure rapidly intensifies. Look for moderate to heavy snow to build in and continue through most of the night!!!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Here We Go

The storm is progressing as I had thought. The next few hours will be the determining factor on the remaining snow amounts. The low pressure is well of the Jersey Coast and we are waiting for the capture and retrograde back to the west. If all goes as modeled, we will look to have heavy snow moving in late afternoon and evening hours lasting through the night. If the low is not captured and does not retrograde as modeled, than we are looking at lesser amounts (still good amounts). How it plays out over the next few hours will be the determining factor between 3-6" or 6-12".

Still looks on track from my eyes.

Today

Woke up to some snow, looks like we will have off and on moderate to heavy snow through this afternoon. There may be periods of time when the snow really tappers off, but this will be short lived once the low pressure retrogrades back over the area this afternoon and evening. Snowfall rates should really increase to 1-3" per hour from the evening hours through the night.

Moderate snow is moving eastward into Mercer and Middlesex County from Monmouth County. Expect snowfall rates to increase for a bit in about 15-30 mins

Not a picture you see often, at all

Notice all the Winter Storm Warnings over Nj and the Flood Warnings over New England



Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Evening Update

First, let me say thank you to the number of people who have spoken very highly of my page. This is truly a historic winter for these parts, and I have been oh so happy (if you could not have noticed)

Anyways, things are looking on track. Looking at the radar, we are already seeing precipitation moving into southern jersey. So, I may need to bump up the starting time to early morning (between 6-8am). Still looks to start as rain or a mix and then it should transition to snow rather quickly. We made it up to the middle 40's today which will have an impact tomorrow on how fast the snow can accumulate on the pavement. it will take a while for that to happen. I have been watching the temperatures today, and as i am writing this, my temperature is 38 degrees. What we also have to look at is the dewpoint, which sits at 32 degrees. That is important because when the precipitation starts, there will be a period of time when the precipitation cools the atmosphere and the temperature will drop and the dewpoint will rise. This is known as evaporational cooling. There is cooler air moving in, which should drop both the dewpoint and temperature prior to the onset of precipitation, so we could very well start out as snow and remain snow throughout.

Anyways, things are still progressing. I still like my amounts of 8-12" around the Burlington County region. I actually think there will be an area of a bit heavier amounts in the area and north of Trenton. This area will extend north through the Poconos and all the way up through the NY/NJ/PA border. This area will see amounts of 12-16" I am not sure how east that will get, but an eastern boundary around the Robbinsville/Millstone/Plainsboro/New Brunswick line will probably be the eastern edge of that. On that subject, I did mention this to be a interesting setup....here are a couple ideas I am going to through out:

These are some ideas I think will happen during this storm, not for the whole duration, but in parts

1. Long Island will have a driving rainstorm while areas back in Jersey will have blizzard like conditions

2 Philadelphia could be snowing while NYC is raining.

3 NJ gets more total snow than CT

4. Thundersnow reports will run rampant over central and northern jersey tomorrow evening and night!!!!! ( I am most looking forward to this)

5. Someone, not sure where, but someone will get 30" of snow out of this storm (best guess now would be in the Central/Eastern NY through Western Mass, Souther NH and Ver.

I am just throwing those ideas out there.....thats how whacky this set up is

Anyways, more updates as the evening and nightime models roll out!

Morning Model Run

Well, the weather models have begun building a consensus on the storm. I cannot emphasize enough how tricky any forecast is going to be with this storm. This type of setup has only appeared less than a handful of times over the last 200 years. The last time was March of 2001, when there was a consensus of a blizzard, only to be stymied on the last days leading up to the onset. It actually cost a couple weathermen their jobs (see google search John Bolaris).

The other such instance, was the great blizzard of 1888. That blizzard was a paralyzing storm that dumped over 40" in spots in CT and Mass. The storm also dropped 20-30" of snow in PA and NJ. (see google search Blizzard of 1888).

Now, do I think we have either of these two cases on our hands? No, I think we are going to have a mix. I dont think we will be missed like 2001, and I dont think we will have it to the extreme of 1888. Essentially what is going to happen is what i described last night. There will be a central low pressure area over the Atlantic that will wobble from the RI area back to the NJ coast as it will essentially be "stuck". Depending on how long that storm wobbles, and depending on how fast it can intensify, that will be the ultimate field to determine the amount of snow.

As I see it now, precipitation looks to start late morning tomorrow. It will most likely start out as rain or a mix, and then quickly transition to snow as the low pressure intensifies off the NC coast. Snow will fall for the majroity of the day accumulating 3-6" by Nightime. Overnight tomorrow, snow will continue, heavy at times with an additional accumulation of 5-6" I am looking to have between 8-12" by morning on Friday. Again, this storm is tricky, and it could go either way. You have just a good chance of 2" as you do with 20". It is going to be the type of storm where you will not know how bad it is or going to be until it starts.

There is also a good chance of strong winds creating near whiteouts and blizzard conditions. There again is a chance of some thundersnow over the area in the heaviest bands that move through....man, it sounds like a repeat of three other storms this year :)

Anyways, I will stay on it and keep you posted!

Models gone wild

the upcoming event is going to be very interesting. If you remember how I spoke about Miller "B" storms being the hardest to predict, they are. And this storm will be as every bit difficult. The present storm going on now moves out tomorrow. That low pressure does not move that far away. meanwhile a low pressure system is moving through Texas. The Texas lp will reform off the NC coast on Thursday and move North. Meanwhile, another low pressure moves in from the great lakes region/Ohio valley. The thinking is, all 3 of these low pressures merge into one and create a long duration event. There is great potential here for a very dangerous situation. The problem is, with all these variables, where does it end up taking shape? That will have to be ironed out tomorrow. There are very real possibilities of seeing 2" of snow or 20" of snow. The real dangerous part about this is the real outcome will not be known until the storm is here, that's what it will come down to with all these variables. For now, I am thinking precipitation starts on thursday as rain and quickly switches to snow. It will snow through the evening and night with upwards f 4-8" for central jersey.

A reminder, winter storm watches are posted for wed night thru Friday.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Wet Today, White Thursday and Friday!

Well, looks like another major snow storm is progged to hit the area for the end of the week. Now, there is not great model agreement on the exact setup, but it looks at a minimum as a nice 4-8" snowfall. The American NAM model has consistently shown NJ as ground zero for this, and paints our area in a lot of snow. Other models differ quite a bit, so we will see who the overall winner will be! I will continue to monitor it, and keep the blog posted!

NWS has already posted Winter Storm Watches for Wednesday Night through Friday.

Get ready for the great melt of '10

What was once a promising snow storm potential has now fizzled to become a rainmaker. Tomorrow, looks like rain moves in during the afternoon and will last thru Tuesday. There then does appear to be another low pressure that will follow on the heels of tomorrows event. The second low pressure does look interesting with a fresh supply of cold air moving on after tomorrows event. More to come on that.

Looks like we will see a majority of the snow melt with the rain tomorrow and tomorrow night. Make sure your pumps are working, they will be put to the test! Looks like we will see a general one inch of rain up to two inches in some spots!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Minor Event Tonight

Low pressure is currently strengthening off the Va coast and moving northward. Unfortunately, our area will miss out on decent snows. We will continue to see light to moderate snow for a period of time tonight through the morning hours. a coating to 2" can be expected. With the daytime temperatures up near 40 degrees today, it may take some time for the snow to start accumulating on the pavement.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Tomorrow

No Valentines Day Massacres in the world of weather this year. Remember 3 years ago, we had a sleet storm from hell where about 5" of sleet feel over the area. Anyways, this year we will not have that, although we do have a 12" snow base going!

Tomorrow looks like we are going to have a low pressure cutting across the midwest and Ohio Valley. This low pressure will once again re-develops off the eastern seaboard. This will be no where as potent as the last storm. In addition, we may have a period of mixed precipitation or even rain going before the snow starts.

The exact track and where the low pressure developes will have the ultimate say on how much and what type of precipitation we will have. There is not great weather model agreement either with this storm.

Tomorrow will be nice, then in the afternoon it gets cloudy. By evening, we will begin to see mixed precip or rain break out. Overnight, all the precipitation will turn to snow as the low tracks up the coast. By morning, we may have 1-2" of snow. storm moves out early in the morning on Tuesday.

Not as big deal here, but it will look nice! Areas to the NW of here in Eastern Pa up to the Poconos and Southern NY look to be the jackpot for this one with 6-10" may be likely.

Also a shoutout to the CT crew- You may actually do well with this one too!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Wake Up, Another Storm Coming?

Yeah, you are probably having nightmares already with all this snow we have had this year. Unfortunately, it appears there is more snow on the way for Monday/Tuesday. We have a clipper coming down from Canada which will again transfer energy to the coast. It appears that we could have a measurable snow event from this storm. Clippers typically are very dry systems, and are associated with very cold air, so we should not see any of the accumulations we have seen up to this point this year. Looks like a general 2-4, 3-6 inch event. More to come on amounts later!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Quick update

quick update..... Moderate to heavy snow has spread across the region. The low pressure off the NJ coastline is slowly meandering around. It will slowly move off the coast this afternoon. The low pressure is rapidly intensifying. There have been numerous reports of thundersnow. If you happen to get under a very heavy snow band, listen to the skies, you may hear a rarity, thundersnow. Also remember, winds will start cranking this afternoon. This will cause very bad visibility and near white out conditions! Phase 2 of this storm is right on track!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Noon update

A quick update. Second part of the storm is getting under way. We have been stuck in a lull for the past couple hours do to the low pressure moving closer to the coast. It has also come to a complete crawl. Radar is starting to fill on through NJ and heavy snow is on tap for the afternoon. Places around DC and Baltimore have recieved around a foot. Thundersnow has just been reported in the Villanova area of SE PA. it's coming, just give it time to fill in!


Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Morning Update

Waking up, you will find we have some mixed precipitation in the area. We have recieved about 4-5" of snow, and now we will be in this mix for a couple hours. We will then switch back to all snow this morning and we will see additional heavy accumulations. Areas to our south in DC and Baltimore have already transitioned back to snow.

NWS has issued blizzard warnings for the area due to the return of heavy snow and winds between 35-45 mph. DO NOT THINK THIS STORM IS OVER, there is more coming.

The mixed precipitation is our worst case scenario as everything now is getting encased in ice. Once the winds start blowing tree limbs and power lines will most likely fail. There is the potential for power outages during the height of the storm!

Quick Update

Models now have a consensus. Most wording of sleet and mixed precipitation is off the table, and it looks like all snow. With that, I am upping my amounts for Central Jersey to 10-14" with some locally higher amounts in some of the more intense banding.

Keep in mind, this is a two part system. First part, snow breaks out over the next couple hours and it will be a moderate snow. Waking up tomorrow, we should have between 3-6". Main part of the system will be when the coastal low moves north and we get walloped with some intense snows. The wind will be gusty and will be sistained around 25-30 mph. This will create near blizzard like conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 7 or 8" Snow winds down tomorrow in the evening hours.

More updates to come.

Snowing in Baltimore now, and the streets are covered down that way.

Nightime Models

All major models have spit out about 1" water equivelant for the regon. I am sticking with my 8-12" call.

Snow moves in tonight and should accumulate 3-5" by morning. Snow may iighten up for a period of time during the morning hours while the energy transfers to the coastal low. Once this low strengthen, our snow will become moderate to heavy and last through the evening hours. The winds will also kick in when the coastal low moves north.

Blizzard conditions and thundersnow may be present Wednesday day.

More updates to come

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Midday Model Runs

Midday model runs continue to show a good hit of snow for the area. All models are showing a storm, and most are spitting out around 1" of water equivalent. This would translate to between 8-12" of snow. This call sounds pretty good at this point.

Low pressure will move through the lower Ohio Valley and transfer energy to a new low pressure center off the NC/VA coast and move up the coast. There are a number of issues that must be taken into account for this type of setup. Amounts will be dependent on the exact location of the "new" low pressure where the storm transfers to, the exact track it follows, how fast it can intesify and where the inevitable dry slot develops. Most of these features will not be locked down until the energy transfers to the coast. Keep that in mind when you hear some of the bloated snowfall amounts by local TV Meteorologists. Also keep in mind, there may be sleet and rain mixed in depending on how close it tracks to the coast.

There are a number of issues, and I am laying out some of my ideas here. I do think there will be some mixing confined to the coastal areas of South Jersey. As of now, I think Central NJ on northward stays all snow. I think 8-12" is a good estimate now, subject to change based on some of the other issues I have mentioned.

In any case, the wind will be a factor with this storm, and we will have winds between 20-30mph sustained with gusts even higher. Also, we run the possibility with this storm of hearing some thundersnow.

In any case, it looks like a significant storm is upon us and hopefully people do not let their guard down since we just had 12"+ fall through the area over the weekend.

More updates after the nightime model runs and the model runs tomorrow!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Tuesday/Wednesday

I mentioned earlier about another storm for tues into wed? Well, all models are still showing a signcificant storm for our area. My concern is this will be a forgotten storm due to the big storm we just had. The upcoming storm looks everybit as impressive, but will also have the winds to create blizzard conditions. Confidence is high for a plowable event.

This storm is a Miller B type storm, which is a storm that has a track fom Canada thru the Midwest and Ohio Valley and then redevelopes of the East Coast. depending on the transfer location, how intense it developes will determine our amounts we recieve. The other issues with Miller B's are the fact that a nasty dry slot will develop. Those areas that get hit by the dryslot will have their amounts greatly reduced. The dry slot will have to be determined from radar during the event. In any case, more to come. Please don't let your guard down for this next one!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Get Ready!

so, this past 24 hours has been really nice for the snow lovers. DC thru Trenton was hit and hit hard. While the cleanup continues, just wanted to keep you posted on Tuesday/Wednesday. We have another storm that will be cutting thru the Midwest and will redevelop on the east coast and move up the coast off the shores of Jersey. Weather models are very bullish on the amount of snows we we can expect. All major models have this storm and for the most part have the same track. There is a very strong chance of the area recieving another heavy amount of snow. Unlike the last storm, winds will be howling with this one.

Stay tuned! This could be the best week of weather ever!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Heavy Snow

An extremely heavy band of snow is pivoting into Burlington County from the west. This line extends south through philly and down to baltimore. rates of 2-3"/hr are likely with this band!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Morning Update

There is an extreme gradient in snowfall from this storm. Places in far NNJ have barely seen any snow, while people around Trenton are closing in on a foot, and places outside Philly have over 20". I have seen a report of 21" in Brookhaven, PA. As the low pressure is pulling away this morning the snow will pivot on radar and move out to sea with the storm. We can expect probably 4-5 more hours of moderate to heavy snow before it begins to tapper off to flurries. Very cold conditions set in tonight and tomorrow so be wary of any ice forming from melted snow from salt/sand. Temperatures will not rise above freezing over the next 48 hours.

Get out and enjoy the snow!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Mid Afternoon Update

Snow is pushing its way up further north. Snow will be falling in Wilmington, De momentarily. We are about 3-4 hours from the start time. It appears that there is a good northward nudge on the noontime models and some of the short range models are showing this as well. What that means for us, is more snow. These were some of the intangibles I was talking about earlier.

One thing very impressive with this storm is it will be record breaking. This could be the single biggest storm for the cities of Washington DC, Baltimore and Atlantic City. That is a very impressive feat if it verifies. Those areas can very possibly have upwards of 25"+ of snow.

We also are going to have a decent amount of snow to contend with. I am raising my amounts, here are some updated ideas:

Newark/NNJ/NYC: 4-8"
Trenton/CNJ region: 10-14"
Philly: 12-18"
DC/BALT/WIL, DE/AC: 22-26" AC- if there is no mixing)

There is also a good chance of thundersnow and heavy snowfall rates of over 1"/hr. Be careful driving if you are out overnight. There will be significant beach erosion along the coast and winds will crank along the coast, not as strong inland.

Here we go! This system is loaded with moisture!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Midday model madness

midday model runs have all shown an appreciable push north with precipitation. I am waiting for one last model run to officially declare higher amounts!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Amounts

Well, there is still a bit of uncertainty with this storm. I am going with this call:

NNJ/NYC 2-4"
Trenton Area 7-9"
South Jersey/Philadelphia 10-12"
Baltimore/Washington 14-20"

Hopefully we can get a northern push with this storm to bring some higher amounts up this way. One thing is for sure, this system has a ton of moisture with it, and it wont take much to increase the totals. For now, thats what I am going with.

A parade of storms are also showing up on the models, so we should be looking for a couple more storms over the next two weeks.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Quick morning update

The National Weather Service has posted winter storm watches for central and southern NJ. Winter storm warnings have been posted for the Baltimore/DC corridor. For now, it appears the DC area through Baltimore and East through Deleware look like a solid 12"+. Here in Jersey, we are looking at a 8-14" with the higher amounts being south and the lower amounts north.

There are a couple smaller things that need to be hashed out, and if some of those come to fruition, we would see more snow. I am going to continue to monitor that and see what happens. There is a good chance that some of the heavier snows move further north! More to come!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Weekend Update

Well, here we are. Everyones anticipating the storm this weekend. Well, I am really excited. We have a ton of potential to have a storm to the magnitude of December 19 of this past year. We have one model who has spit out over 20" of snow, consistently. We also have some other models who have shown lesser amounts and are still flopping. The good news, if you like snow, is that all models are showing a hit. This, like most storms along the east coast, will be dependent on track and how fast it can intensify. There are a couple of other details, but I will spare the boredom.

In any case, before I commit to a forecast, I want to see a couple more model runs to see some more consistency. I am looking for a general agreement amongst them all. In addition, I want to see if we are going to have any mixing issues depending on how close the storm gets and draws in warmer air. Verbatim, the models today we would be looking for anything between 4" and 26". Obviously, the truth will be somewhere in between.

A rough idea of what I am looking for is:

DC/Baltimore area 6-10
Philly 6-10
Trenton area 5-9
NYC area 2-4

These numbers are very preliminary. At this point, I feel pretty safe with these as low amounts. HOPEFULLY, I will be able to adjust these higher tomorrow am.

HERE IS OUR STORM DEVELOPING! A HUGE FETCH OF MOISTURE!!!!







Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Quick Post- Tonight and the Weekend

Winter Weather advisories are up for Southern and central NJ. Looks like a period of snow sets in this evening through early morning hours tomorrow. Doesnt look like a whole lot, probably a coating to 2" (coating in the north, more as you go south).

This weekend is looking interesting. Another coastal storm is looking to take shape and effect the region starting Friday Night. All models are pretty consistent, and suppression should not be a factor like last weekend. More to come, but get ready, looks like it could be a big one.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Weekend Update

Wow, all models have kept the storm supressed over the SE United States (NC, SC, S VA). Looks like it may be time to throw the towel in on this one. I iwll wait until tomorrow night to definetly raise the white flag....getting close though.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Weekend Storm Update

Models during the day have shown a supressed system which was pushed south by a strong polar vortex (acting as a block) from the storm pushing north. The nightime models have really slowed the storm down, and as a result, have started a north trend. Could this be due to the polar vortex's strength being overestimated or just a result of the storm slowing down and phasing with a distrubance over the midwest? This is the question that will have to be answered. My gut instinct says this will continue to trend north. Model runs will be important in the next 48 hours to see the path the storm will take. Models today have shown no precipitation over the area. It has also pushed back the start time to Saturday. More to come.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

All Aboard, Snow Train In Station!

Looks like a return to winter is upon us. After 60 dgeree weather, things will be going downhill. We will have a cold front or two pressing through over the next couple of days, and then towards the end of the week, we bringback the mention of snow.

I am a bit excited already! All major weather models are showing a storm. There are some differences between them, but they are in fairly good agreement. At this time frame, that is good news if you like snow. Usually you will have one or two models hinting at it, and others showing different solutions. This is a great sign.

What we are looking at is a artic frontal boundary that will stretch across the region around Friday and then a low pressure system will develop and ride along the front. This low pressure looks to be taking shape in the Gulf of Mexico and then off the North Carolina coast. From there, how that low tracks will determine the magnitude of the storm.

I will be updating daily now, as the snow threat has me a bit excited! The snow train is in the station, engines engaged and boarding passengers!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Cold Front Pushing Through

Look out, over the next hour, and small, but robust line of storms will push through. This is the cold front associated with this mornings rain. This will usher in colder air, and is the pattern changer that will likely lead to the wintry conditions at the end of the week....watch out for the wind gusts and torrential rain with this line!





Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Rain Today, Pattern Change, Snow End Of The Week?

rain still on track today, although start time has been pushed back until late evening (5-7pm). Heavy rain and thunderstorms (yes, tstorms) look to be present in the early morning hours tomorrow. Heavy rain and possible flooding will mark the rush hour tomorrow.

A cold front pushes through tomorrow evening and temps tumble. This will usher in a new pattern and a return towards more wintry conditions. Highs for the week will be in the 30s.

Next shot of snow looks to be the end of the week with a chance of a significant storm. More to come with that later!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Flooding Possible

Lots of rain moving in for Tomorrow. Starting around noon, expect moderate to Heavy rains, and by Monday morning, we could be looking at on the order of 2" of rain for the area. Sunday evening into the night also looks like there is a good potential for thunderstorms. These storms will be triggered by an advancing cold front.

Tonight and tomorrow

it appears the mix bag of precip will stay surpressed to our south overnight meaning we will only have a small chance of precip to be falling in the am. The further south you go, the better chance of hitting some stuff falling from the sky. This should come as good news for those of you who planned on having a messed up rush hour tomorrow

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

End of the week slop

while we have been enjoying some mild weather, this looks to be a thaw between two cold punches. In the near future, our weather will turn back towards a colder regime. In the meantime, we have a system moving through the midwest which will move into the area tomorrow night. Precipitation starts out as rain, and then as an associated cold front works through, it will transition to frozen precipitation overnight Thursday. Expect snow, sleet and freezing rain when you wake up Friday morning. There is a chance for some light accumulations, in the range of a coating to an inch. Give yourself some extra time if your driving.

MAJOR EARTHQUAKE

An major earthquake measuring at least 7.0 has struck Port Au Prince, Haiti. The quake happened early evening tonight and the true extent of the damage is not known. Reports of a hospital that has collapsed and numerous other buildings are down. No doubt, there will be a massive loss of life and a very chaotic scene is unfolding.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

WOW

Here is a great National Geographic documentary on the Superstorm of 93...... awesome video, and definetely worth your time.....especially those weather lovers!

http://www.hulu.com/watch/104087/national-geographic-specials-storm-of-the-century

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Some Snow Tonight

Looks like a clipper type event coming through tonight. Snow looks to start between 1am and 3am and will continue through mid morning. Snowfall amounts across central jersey look to be on the order of 1-3"

Expect a coating on the roads and all surfaces by the time you wake up in the morning. There is a chance for a brief intensification of the storm when it hits the coast, so we could find the amounts toward the high end if that happens and throws enough moisture back our way.
Once ti passes, cold weather remains! Next major storm chance looks to be coming around MLK day.

Next Storm

This winter, the story so far has been a storm every weekend. Starting back with the 19th/20th snowstorm, that was followed up on the following Friday and Saturday with the Christmas rain which was followed up by the slop we had this past New Years Eve and day. Well, this trend looks to continue. Models are showing a very potent storm settling in for next weekend. This does have a potential to be a decent storm if they models are correct. If being the key word....I will still watch it, but its looking promising. In any case, up until then, highs in the 30s and lows in the teens. It will be dry this week as well.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner