Midday model runs continue to show a good hit of snow for the area. All models are showing a storm, and most are spitting out around 1" of water equivalent. This would translate to between 8-12" of snow. This call sounds pretty good at this point.
Low pressure will move through the lower Ohio Valley and transfer energy to a new low pressure center off the NC/VA coast and move up the coast. There are a number of issues that must be taken into account for this type of setup. Amounts will be dependent on the exact location of the "new" low pressure where the storm transfers to, the exact track it follows, how fast it can intesify and where the inevitable dry slot develops. Most of these features will not be locked down until the energy transfers to the coast. Keep that in mind when you hear some of the bloated snowfall amounts by local TV Meteorologists. Also keep in mind, there may be sleet and rain mixed in depending on how close it tracks to the coast.
There are a number of issues, and I am laying out some of my ideas here. I do think there will be some mixing confined to the coastal areas of South Jersey. As of now, I think Central NJ on northward stays all snow. I think 8-12" is a good estimate now, subject to change based on some of the other issues I have mentioned.
In any case, the wind will be a factor with this storm, and we will have winds between 20-30mph sustained with gusts even higher. Also, we run the possibility with this storm of hearing some thundersnow.
In any case, it looks like a significant storm is upon us and hopefully people do not let their guard down since we just had 12"+ fall through the area over the weekend.
More updates after the nightime model runs and the model runs tomorrow!
Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner
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