Morning Model Run

Well, the weather models have begun building a consensus on the storm. I cannot emphasize enough how tricky any forecast is going to be with this storm. This type of setup has only appeared less than a handful of times over the last 200 years. The last time was March of 2001, when there was a consensus of a blizzard, only to be stymied on the last days leading up to the onset. It actually cost a couple weathermen their jobs (see google search John Bolaris).

The other such instance, was the great blizzard of 1888. That blizzard was a paralyzing storm that dumped over 40" in spots in CT and Mass. The storm also dropped 20-30" of snow in PA and NJ. (see google search Blizzard of 1888).

Now, do I think we have either of these two cases on our hands? No, I think we are going to have a mix. I dont think we will be missed like 2001, and I dont think we will have it to the extreme of 1888. Essentially what is going to happen is what i described last night. There will be a central low pressure area over the Atlantic that will wobble from the RI area back to the NJ coast as it will essentially be "stuck". Depending on how long that storm wobbles, and depending on how fast it can intensify, that will be the ultimate field to determine the amount of snow.

As I see it now, precipitation looks to start late morning tomorrow. It will most likely start out as rain or a mix, and then quickly transition to snow as the low pressure intensifies off the NC coast. Snow will fall for the majroity of the day accumulating 3-6" by Nightime. Overnight tomorrow, snow will continue, heavy at times with an additional accumulation of 5-6" I am looking to have between 8-12" by morning on Friday. Again, this storm is tricky, and it could go either way. You have just a good chance of 2" as you do with 20". It is going to be the type of storm where you will not know how bad it is or going to be until it starts.

There is also a good chance of strong winds creating near whiteouts and blizzard conditions. There again is a chance of some thundersnow over the area in the heaviest bands that move through....man, it sounds like a repeat of three other storms this year :)

Anyways, I will stay on it and keep you posted!