Well, interesting turn of events yesterday on the model runs. There is now a split on the upcoming weekend storm. We have one model, the rather reliable EURO model, depicting a full scale, all out east coast blizzard. It has also been very bullish on its last couple of runs. Then, we have the American GFS model which is showing a totally suppressed storm that exits off the SE coast and out to sea. It has been pretty staunch on its stance as well. The other models fall in between the Euro and GFS.
One thing is for sure, this is no longer a Christmas Eve into Christmas Day storm. The trends on all models is to keep precipitation out of the area until late Christmas Afternoon/Evening at the earliest. In fact, the Euro does not have precipitation starting until early Sunday morning. To me, we want this to be a slower moving storm like the Euro depicts. This gives time for things to phase and setup allowing for a east coast snowstorm. If it is a faster moving storm, then all the pieces may not fall into place, and realistically we could see the storm move off the coast. This exact scenario is becoming the norm on the east coast. We either get the full monty, or we get nothing. The 3-6", 4-8" storms are becoming less and less common and we either get 12"+ or nothing. Truth be told, a nice 3-6" snowfall would be great on Christmas Day, that's all I want.
In any case, where do we go. Well, it is a wait and see game of chicken between the EURO model and the GFS model. Eventually, one of them will flinch and we can get a better understanding of what may occur. For now, keep it in the back of your mind that a snowstorm can occur this weekend. Also, at the same time, prepare yourself for the dissapointment of temperatures in the mid 30's with partly cloudy skies this weekend!
More to come!
Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner
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