Quick thoughts on Tuesday

Tuesdays storm is once again going to be very complex setup. This
storm is going to be dealing with a low pressure that will move up the
Ohio Valley. It should weaken and transfer energy off to a new low
which will form off the Carolina coast. These situations are very
tricky and have a high probability of significant changes. For us, in
order to get high accumulations of all snow, we need to have the Ohio
valley low weaken early enough to allow the new coastal low to "bomb"
out and give us good snows.

If the Ohio valley low stays stronger longer, then the coastal low
will come up the coast further west and introduce mixing and/or rain.

If it weakens really early, the coastal low could just scoot off the
East Coast and not affect anyone.

The real issue is, you can pick your model of choice and each is
showing the above situations. The medium range Euro is showing a good
hit, while tonights NAM model run is showing the further west bringing
mixing and rain to the coast (although it still shows us all snow as
of now)

The GFS model is showing a Ohio valley low weakening, but the coastal
low does not bomb out until it is moving past us.

I would suspect by Monday morning and afternoon model runs we will
have a better idea ad hopefully some consensus of where we are
heading. We will also be able to look at what would currently be going
on and have a better handle.

One thing I for sure, it looks like parts of the deep south will have
a large ice storm to deal with while areas north of that will have a
lot of snow.

There is a real possibility of a significant winter storm Tuesday and
Wednesday so I will continue to follow and see where it goes.... More
to come