Ok, some consensus building

Well, yesterday and overnight there has been some consensus building
between weather models. With some certainty, I don't think we are
looking at an all rain event. I also do not believe we have an all
snow event. What the whole storm is hinging on is high pressure in
Canada building in as the storm gets underway. The high pressure is
key because that is what will be supplying the cold air. The other
part of the equation will be the low pressure and how fast it can
intensify and draw in the cold air. The faster it can intensify, the
faster the cold air will be drawn into the system.

One thing that has also changed is this is looking like a Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday event. This is key too, because when I first
started talking about the storm, we were looking at a Tuesday into
Wednesday event. This is key because we have the recent cold weather
being supplied by a high pressure over Maine which will be departing
the area today. Hence, if the storm happened tomorrow, I would venture
to say we would be majority rain. So, by it being delayed to Wednesday
afternoon, we allow another cold high pressure in Canada to build in,
increasing the chance of snow.

How I incision this playing out is a coastal storm develops, moves up
the coast and rain will overspread the area. Then, colder air builds
in and changes the rain to snow from west to east. Depending on how
fast the cold builds in will determine how much snow we get.

The storm looks to drop between 1"-1.5" of water equivalent. How much
falls as rain and how much falls as snow, that's the question now.

More to come!