Winter Storm Warning Now Issued

Winter Storm Warning (New Jersey)
2014-01-02T03:32:00GMT-0500
2014-01-03T13:00:00GMT-0500

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A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

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...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND DANGEROUS COLD...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THEN TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES OUT TO SEA.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SOME RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX THIS AFTERNOON FROM PHILADELPHIA SOUTH AND EAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL SHOULD BECOME HAZARDOUS THURSDAY EVENING AS SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE. THIS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY FLUFFY SNOW AND AS WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS. ROAD PLOWING OPERATIONS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND ALSO SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND CREATES NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...STARTING OUT RANGING BETWEEN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON, THEN FALLING INTO THE 20S AND TEENS TONIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHERE TEMPERATURES START OUT WELL ABOVE FREEZING TODAY, FLASH FREEZING CAN OCCUR TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP BELOW FREEZING AND THE SNOW INCREASES. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE HALF OF A MILE A TIMES TONIGHT.

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Atlantic; Camden; Coastal Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Cumberland; Eastern Monmouth; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Salem; Somerset; Southeastern Burlington; Western Monmouth

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Corey

coreytowner@gmail.com

Winter Storm Watch Issued- NJ

Winter Storm Watch (New Jersey)
2014-01-01T14:35:00GMT-0500
2014-01-03T10:00:00GMT-0500

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A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND DANGEROUS COLD...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA THURSDAY, THEN STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING. A DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES OUT TO SEA.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 7 INCHES ANTICIPATED. * TIMING...SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SOME RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX LATER THURSDAY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILADELPHIA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL SHOULD BECOME HAZARDOUS THURSDAY EVENING AS SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE. THIS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY FLUFFY SNOW AND AS WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW SHOULD MAKE TRAVEL EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS. ROAD PLOWING OPERATIONS WOULD BE GREATLY AFFECTED, ESPECIALLY DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND ALSO SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM THURSDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST DURING FRIDAY. * TEMPERATURES...STARTING OUT RANGING BETWEEN ABOUT THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN FALLING INTO THE 20S AND TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHERE TEMPERATURES START OUT WELL ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY, FLASH FREEZING CAN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP BELOW FREEZING AND THE SNOW INCREASES. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE HALF OF A MILE A TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT.

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Atlantic; Camden; Coastal Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Cumberland; Eastern Monmouth; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Salem; Somerset; Southeastern Burlington; Western Monmouth

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Corey

coreytowner@gmail.com

January 2-3, 2014 Storm (Wednesday Noon Update)

First, HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Well, here we are once again with a very challenging forecast which will more than likely go down to another nowcasting event. There are a number of moving parts to this storm, and the overall strength will not be known for some time. We have an interaction that will occur between the subtropical jet (currently the precipitation along the Gulf States and the Polar jet (currently the precipitation through the midwest into Detroit). As seen here:

As the storm progresses, we will see an interaction occur. When, and how quickly these parts interact and eventually phase, that will determine how much snow we are looking at. The NAM model paints an earlier phase and a bigger storm for our area, and the GFS model paints a later phase, and as a result, a bigger storm over New England. In any case, the GFS model still paints a plowable event for our area.

GFS model- Showing a quick intesification for our area, but moves out rather quickly in the next frame and hits NE.

1am Friday:

 Friday 7am: (notice brunt of the precip off shore and over eastern NE

NAM MODEL

Quicker phase, really hammers our area

 Still has moderate to heavy snow over our area at 7am Friday (notice our area has the brunt of the precip):

So, the big question will be when does this phase occur. And unfortunately, it will have to be now casted tomorrow night. Either case, we are looking at a storm which will drop a couple inches. Here is where I am now, if we get that earlier phase, I think our area would be looking at 6-10" of snow. If we get that later phase, I think we will be looking at 2-4 (SNJ) to 3-6 (CNJ-NNJ). Its going to be another thread the needle event, with another tough forecast. Don't be surprised to hear amounts going up and down by the media stations. I do believe that Watches and or Warnings will be issued for MT Holly's forecast area this afternoon. In addition, Areas just to our north, we may actually have the B word watches issued. Winds will definitely be a factor, and if they can get high enough, we may meet that criteria ("Blizzard conditions" technically occur when strong winds (at least 35 mph) combine with either falling snow or snow on the ground to reduce visibilities to 1/4 mile or less for at least three hours.)

The other dangerous part of this storm will be the temperatures. We are dealing with a polar airmass with this, so even though the morning tomorrow will be cool, temperatures will plummet tomorrow night and it could infact get down to the teens and be snowing, 20's all the way down to the coast. The danger with that, is #1, its cold and #2, salt does not work as well in much colder temperatures. #3, snow ratios will be higher (usually 1" water = 10" of snow). We could be looking at 15:1, 20:1 or higher! In any case, I am tuned and am looking forward to seeing this come together!