Here We Go....

Sorry for the late post. Well, We have before us, our first taste of winter. I am fairly confident snow will fall. Really, the only issue I have is temperatures. We have temperatures now in the mid to upper 30's. What we will have to watch is the dew points. Right now, dew points are in the mid 20's. What we need to watch is as the precipitation moves in, the dew point and the physical temperature will adjust towards each other. This is called evaporational cooling and basically saturates the atmosphere at the expense of lower temperatures. So, We will see how low the temperatures can go. Also, we have a coastal storm, so air from over the ocean will be entrained into the system which at this time of year is warm. How far west does this air make it? There is still another way to overcome marginal temperatures. This is called mesoscale banding. Basically, this is when an intese heavy band of snow develops and moves over an area. These are usually detected on the radar view as brighter colors. When snow falls heavy, it will accumulate at any tmeperature (it will also usually melt faster as well if temperatures remain). Still a lot of questions.

As of now, the radar is looking very healthy. This is moving westward, onshore

many of those "bands" have already develop, so this is a major plus for those that want snow.

I think that region wide, we can  see anywhere from 2-4" The models have really ben showing the Philly area getting the brunt, but really it will be all dependent on where those bands set up. Those are all nowcast issues and will have to be determined via the radar. But I like 2-4" 2" being areas where banding does not set up, and 6" if you can land under the most persistent bands, you can get to 4" If you are under a band for a while, 6" is not out of the question. Shore areas, I think you will primarily be rain on this storm.

In addition, watch out for the winds. The winds will be whipping around and any of the fragile power lines will again begin to fall. In addition, this will be a heavy wet snow and will plaster trees that still have leaves on them and cause limbs to come down.

So, look for rains to start, and then transition over to snow quickly. It will snow most of the afternoon and into tonight before tapering off early tomorrow morning.

I will be updating twitter (@townerswxpage) and my Facebook page (Towner's Weather PAGE) with the latest and where some of those bands set up.

Stay Safe!

Wednesday / Thursday Evening Update 11/6/2012

Hopefully this finds you having already voted today. In addition, lets start with some good news. After this storm pushes through, we are going to be looking pretty with temperatures in the upper 50's and 60's. We should have these temps for atleast a few days. This will really help with the clean up and rebuilding down da shore.

Now, the bad news. What was excellent news this morning, has now transitioned into a mess. Models were all showing a storm weaker, and moving to the east this morning away from our area. I highlighted some ideas I had regarding what can happen. It is very dependent on this disturbance moving through the midwest. My idea is, if it can catch the low pressure of the SE coast, it would cause it to slow up and move closer to the coast. I also showed a link to the current water vapor loop. The disturbance was in Iowa this morning. I also did say it was moving rather drastically towards the low off the GA coast. Well, here is a link to the current water vapor loop. This disturbance has ALMOST caught the low.

 WATER VAPOR LOOP

 I think the models were able to clue in on that today, and hence the change further west. So, seeing the water vapor, I am all in for a closer to the coast track. Now, the next question that has to be answered.....HOW CLOSE? Well, this will be a huge factor for a number of reasons. As discussed earlier, the closer to the coast, the closer the strongest winds are. The closer to the coast, the more precipitation we receive (and the further west it goes). The closer to the coast, colder air stays further west and wraps in there and snow is limited to the western areas. Storm moves further east, precipitation stays closer to the coast, and the colder air wraps in giving us snow. See, a number of variables.

We have seen a number of these storms before in the area. We have seen complete misses, we have seen heavy rain change to heavy snow and creating accumulations and we have seen all snow events and all rain events. I think we get to experience it all with this one. My feeling, as of now is we have some rain move in during the early afternoon. Through the afternoon the rain will change over to snow, from west to east. I then believe it will probably snow for the majority of the overnight hours before tapering off in the early morning hours Thursday.

This is a super complex storm and there are a number of wheels in motion. I wouldnt be surprised with anything that happens tomorrow. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. More to come tonight where we can maybe even talk some accumulations!

Winter Weather Advisories are out, please heed the message....the first snow of the year is usually the most dangerous as people have not had to drive in those conditions for a while.

Hello My Friend, Winter Weather Advisories Are Up

More to come later, wanted to get the first of the season out! I will have a good discussion on this later.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH SOUTH AND EAST. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...

SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVIEST LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN AND SNOW MAY MIX WITH SOME SLEET AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY SO ANY DAYTIME ACCUMULATION WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO GRASSY AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TOWARD FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROAD SURFACES. TREATED ROADWAYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ICE FREE. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S.