January 22-24th Storm Tuesday Morning Discussion

Good morning everyone! As many are waking up to one of the coldest mornings this season, most people are looking towards the end of the week, and deservedly so. I have been talking about the possibility of a significant storm for the end of the week for a couple days now. Yesterday's model runs still continue to show a significant storm for our area. Some very important steps will occur today and tonight as the main players of the storm setup will make their way into the lower 48. Currently, our storm and the associated energy with is, is located in the Eastern Pacific.

When the pieces of energy make it onshore, the data ingested will be better and a much more complete picture can be taken. Currently, we are relying on bouy data and data ingested from commercial airlines that are in the area.

The one thing we have going for us, is every model is showing a significant storm. Too many times in the past, we would have one or two models showing this, and we waited for the others to move towards it. Not this time. There are minor differences, but all are showing a significant storm. That by itself is reason to be optimistic, and begin the planning stages of your personal preparation.

Well, lets get to it. As stated, all models are showing a significant impact. There are some subtle differences though, and those are the things I am hoping resolve once we get better data samples once over land. To the model recap:

GFS

the 6z GFS brings our low pressure up close enough to where the area would flirt with a mix or changeover to sleet or freezing rain. This changeover would be short, but does show up on the model.

Sleet at hour 96 (1am Saturday)

Back to snow hour 102 (7am Saturday)

CANADIAN 

The Canadian model appears to be in the camp of the GFS. This is off the 0z Tuesday model run and at the same point, hour 102 (1am Sat), would have the area over to a mix or change to sleet / freezing rain. It would turn back to heavy snow by 7am Saturday. 

EURO

The Euro model is to weaker and more south than the other two. The Euro would keep our area as snow the entire time, with no changeover. This is due to the fact that it takes a more southern track and does not come up and hug the coast. 

 The GFS and Canadian models show a closer to the coast track due to its track. They both have a more northern track, and where the upper level low captures the storm, it brings it back towards the area. This happens on the Euro too, but further south. Over the next day or two, I will be watching to see exactly where the upper level low is forecast to form, and see if the models eventually can agree on that position. The track will be determined based upon that, leading to our eventual type(s) of precipitation. 

Winds with this storm will be cranking. As the low pressure hits the coast and really strengthens, it will be contrasting a high pressure system in Canada and as the two battle, the winds will increase easterly off the Atlantic ocean. This will be devastating for coastal areas. Flooding will also be aided during high tides by a full moon which already has a higher than normal tide. If you have property down the shore, now is the time to prepare. Models are showing winds up to 60 mph right along the coast sustained. Inland, it will also be windy, but not to the extent of the shore. All areas will have the problem too of a heavy wet snow accumulating on trees and power lines. Mixed with the heavy winds, its a recipe for power outages. 

One more thing, the HPC has released their view for the water equivelant maps on what will fall (if it was all water)....that's a lot of precipitation. 

In any case, more to come over the next couple days!