January 22-24 Storm Wednesday Morning Discussion

Good morning everyone, here we are, one more step closer to the weekend. As we head into the weekend, the big discussion is about the impending storm. As of now, everything is still on for a significant storm poised to impact our area. As of now, I think snow breaks out over Richmond and Northern NC early morning Friday. This moves up into WV, DC and Baltimore Through the early afternoon. Snow will make it up to DE and just south of Philly during the evening and finally into C NJ late evening. As of now, it appears areas in VA up to the WV panhandle through  DC and Baltimore stand the best chance for max accumulations. While I am not going to give out amounts yet, these areas are looking well over a foot. For our area, snow accumulations are very likely, possibly significant but we also have to look at some other factors.

Snow spreads over the region, we will then have to turn our attention to the system to find out how close it tracks to the coast. Models are showing this storm to crawl up the coast to an almost stand still off the DELMARVA Peninsula. How close it comes to the coast, and how rapidly it can deepen will determine how far inland the mix line and rain lines make it. Further off the coast, mix line wont make it as far inland, closer to the coast, more areas will be dealing with a mix or rain. There is an old saying though......."In order to have the best snows, you gotta be able to smell the rain" meaning, areas still cold enough, near the mix lines usually do good. Where this sets up will be key.

As stated, the storm will be a slow mover as it is "captured" by an upper level low. Where this takes place will ultimately be another factor on how far this storm makes it north, while having the best dynamics. As of now, this is poised to occur over VA, WV through DC and Baltimore. Philly and S NJ are towards the top of that area. With 2 full days to go, I would like to see another couple of model runs to see if that changes.

In any case, we are dealing with a system that is poised to drop a lot of precipitation. Determining how much falls as snow and the effects of the mix / rain lines will ultimately have the final verdict on total accumulations. Here is the updated precipitable water chart for the area through Monday. As you can see, that's a lot of water.

GFS
GFS model takes the storm to the S NC coastal waters and then brings the storm up the coast. This track, as modeled will introduce the mix line in our area (after a significant period of snow). It does appear though that much of the area from roughly 95 east stays frozen (sleet, freezing rain) and the only rain chances occur at the coast where the surface temperature goes above freezing. Areas roughly west of 95 would remain snow, and lots of it.

Canadian

Keeps the same idea as the GFS, but actually has the mixing period much briefer in areas east of 95. This would lead us to a greater total snowfall accumulation.


EURO
Yesterdays 12z run had a lot of people in a panic. It took a fairly substantial jump to the south. With the normal steadfast reliability of the model, a lot of people started looking as if this was the end of the storm. Here was yesterdays 12z, which left the heaviest amounts in Richmond up through WV, DC and Baltimore. Decent snows made it up to about 195 in C NJ, but that was it.

Scoots off the east coast with minimal impacts past 195 in C NJ

That all changed for this mornings 00z run. I had mentioned yesterday about wanting to wait until a majority of the system made it onto land to be fully sampled and have "good" data ingested into the model. Well, last night, the Euro took another step further north. While it went north, it continued the great hit for areas in VA, DC and Baltimore. For our area, it brought precipitation back in, but also has us flirting with a mix line. The mix line would limit accumulations. In any case, being two and a half days away from the event, we can work out most of those details later. Here is the newest 00z run. 

moving up the coast instead of east (off the coast)

As you can see, while the better consensus is here, we still have a ways to go before nailing this down. For our area though, this is a very classic winter Nor'easter. We usually have the threat of the mix line in the vicinity. It does appear though that it will remain frozen.


The one definite I would like to pass on, regardless of the outcome of this storm, the coastal sections of NJ are in trouble. Very strong winds will be coming onto the coast from the open water pushing waters up onto the coast and into the back bays. In addition, high tides coupled with a full moon phase will spell disaster for coastal flooding. Now is the time to prepare down to the shore. Here is a graphic for modeled winds:

Ok, thats a quick and dirty look. More to come. Hoping to have a preliminary accumulation map out tonight, As always, updates will be flowing through the day!

Oh, one more thing, Jim Cantore is heading to DC...... that should tell you something.