But don't really expect any accumulations. We have a small disturbance moving through the area tomorrow. Temperatures at best are going to be marginal, and the precipitation will be falling during the daytime hours. I think this will be one of those cases that it snows, but it will be light enough that we will not see any accumulations. Possibly a coating on grass. So, don't be surprised to see flakes fly tomorrow.
NAM Model- The most juiced up model bringing .5" of water equivalent to the area. If you want snow, hug this.
GFS- same track, a lot less precipitation.
EURO- nothing measurable.
As you can see, there is little agreement. Once again, going to be a thread the needle type situation.
Monday, November 26, 2012
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Here We Go....
Sorry for the late post. Well, We have before us, our first taste of winter. I am fairly confident snow will fall. Really, the only issue I have is temperatures. We have temperatures now in the mid to upper 30's. What we will have to watch is the dew points. Right now, dew points are in the mid 20's. What we need to watch is as the precipitation moves in, the dew point and the physical temperature will adjust towards each other. This is called evaporational cooling and basically saturates the atmosphere at the expense of lower temperatures. So, We will see how low the temperatures can go. Also, we have a coastal storm, so air from over the ocean will be entrained into the system which at this time of year is warm. How far west does this air make it? There is still another way to overcome marginal temperatures. This is called mesoscale banding. Basically, this is when an intese heavy band of snow develops and moves over an area. These are usually detected on the radar view as brighter colors. When snow falls heavy, it will accumulate at any tmeperature (it will also usually melt faster as well if temperatures remain). Still a lot of questions.
As of now, the radar is looking very healthy. This is moving westward, onshore
many of those "bands" have already develop, so this is a major plus for those that want snow.
I think that region wide, we can see anywhere from 2-4" The models have really ben showing the Philly area getting the brunt, but really it will be all dependent on where those bands set up. Those are all nowcast issues and will have to be determined via the radar. But I like 2-4" 2" being areas where banding does not set up, and 6" if you can land under the most persistent bands, you can get to 4" If you are under a band for a while, 6" is not out of the question. Shore areas, I think you will primarily be rain on this storm.
In addition, watch out for the winds. The winds will be whipping around and any of the fragile power lines will again begin to fall. In addition, this will be a heavy wet snow and will plaster trees that still have leaves on them and cause limbs to come down.
So, look for rains to start, and then transition over to snow quickly. It will snow most of the afternoon and into tonight before tapering off early tomorrow morning.
I will be updating twitter (@townerswxpage) and my Facebook page (Towner's Weather PAGE) with the latest and where some of those bands set up.
Stay Safe!
As of now, the radar is looking very healthy. This is moving westward, onshore
many of those "bands" have already develop, so this is a major plus for those that want snow.
I think that region wide, we can see anywhere from 2-4" The models have really ben showing the Philly area getting the brunt, but really it will be all dependent on where those bands set up. Those are all nowcast issues and will have to be determined via the radar. But I like 2-4" 2" being areas where banding does not set up, and 6" if you can land under the most persistent bands, you can get to 4" If you are under a band for a while, 6" is not out of the question. Shore areas, I think you will primarily be rain on this storm.
In addition, watch out for the winds. The winds will be whipping around and any of the fragile power lines will again begin to fall. In addition, this will be a heavy wet snow and will plaster trees that still have leaves on them and cause limbs to come down.
So, look for rains to start, and then transition over to snow quickly. It will snow most of the afternoon and into tonight before tapering off early tomorrow morning.
I will be updating twitter (@townerswxpage) and my Facebook page (Towner's Weather PAGE) with the latest and where some of those bands set up.
Stay Safe!
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Wednesday / Thursday Evening Update 11/6/2012
Hopefully this finds you having already voted today. In addition, lets start with some good news. After this storm pushes through, we are going to be looking pretty with temperatures in the upper 50's and 60's. We should have these temps for atleast a few days. This will really help with the clean up and rebuilding down da shore.
Now, the bad news. What was excellent news this morning, has now transitioned into a mess. Models were all showing a storm weaker, and moving to the east this morning away from our area. I highlighted some ideas I had regarding what can happen. It is very dependent on this disturbance moving through the midwest. My idea is, if it can catch the low pressure of the SE coast, it would cause it to slow up and move closer to the coast. I also showed a link to the current water vapor loop. The disturbance was in Iowa this morning. I also did say it was moving rather drastically towards the low off the GA coast. Well, here is a link to the current water vapor loop. This disturbance has ALMOST caught the low.
WATER VAPOR LOOP
I think the models were able to clue in on that today, and hence the change further west. So, seeing the water vapor, I am all in for a closer to the coast track. Now, the next question that has to be answered.....HOW CLOSE? Well, this will be a huge factor for a number of reasons. As discussed earlier, the closer to the coast, the closer the strongest winds are. The closer to the coast, the more precipitation we receive (and the further west it goes). The closer to the coast, colder air stays further west and wraps in there and snow is limited to the western areas. Storm moves further east, precipitation stays closer to the coast, and the colder air wraps in giving us snow. See, a number of variables.
We have seen a number of these storms before in the area. We have seen complete misses, we have seen heavy rain change to heavy snow and creating accumulations and we have seen all snow events and all rain events. I think we get to experience it all with this one. My feeling, as of now is we have some rain move in during the early afternoon. Through the afternoon the rain will change over to snow, from west to east. I then believe it will probably snow for the majority of the overnight hours before tapering off in the early morning hours Thursday.
This is a super complex storm and there are a number of wheels in motion. I wouldnt be surprised with anything that happens tomorrow. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. More to come tonight where we can maybe even talk some accumulations!
Winter Weather Advisories are out, please heed the message....the first snow of the year is usually the most dangerous as people have not had to drive in those conditions for a while.
Now, the bad news. What was excellent news this morning, has now transitioned into a mess. Models were all showing a storm weaker, and moving to the east this morning away from our area. I highlighted some ideas I had regarding what can happen. It is very dependent on this disturbance moving through the midwest. My idea is, if it can catch the low pressure of the SE coast, it would cause it to slow up and move closer to the coast. I also showed a link to the current water vapor loop. The disturbance was in Iowa this morning. I also did say it was moving rather drastically towards the low off the GA coast. Well, here is a link to the current water vapor loop. This disturbance has ALMOST caught the low.
WATER VAPOR LOOP
I think the models were able to clue in on that today, and hence the change further west. So, seeing the water vapor, I am all in for a closer to the coast track. Now, the next question that has to be answered.....HOW CLOSE? Well, this will be a huge factor for a number of reasons. As discussed earlier, the closer to the coast, the closer the strongest winds are. The closer to the coast, the more precipitation we receive (and the further west it goes). The closer to the coast, colder air stays further west and wraps in there and snow is limited to the western areas. Storm moves further east, precipitation stays closer to the coast, and the colder air wraps in giving us snow. See, a number of variables.
We have seen a number of these storms before in the area. We have seen complete misses, we have seen heavy rain change to heavy snow and creating accumulations and we have seen all snow events and all rain events. I think we get to experience it all with this one. My feeling, as of now is we have some rain move in during the early afternoon. Through the afternoon the rain will change over to snow, from west to east. I then believe it will probably snow for the majority of the overnight hours before tapering off in the early morning hours Thursday.
This is a super complex storm and there are a number of wheels in motion. I wouldnt be surprised with anything that happens tomorrow. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. More to come tonight where we can maybe even talk some accumulations!
Winter Weather Advisories are out, please heed the message....the first snow of the year is usually the most dangerous as people have not had to drive in those conditions for a while.
Hello My Friend, Winter Weather Advisories Are Up
More to come later, wanted to get the first of the season out! I will have a good discussion on this later.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH SOUTH AND EAST. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...
SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVIEST LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN AND SNOW MAY MIX WITH SOME SLEET AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY SO ANY DAYTIME ACCUMULATION WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO GRASSY AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TOWARD FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROAD SURFACES. TREATED ROADWAYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ICE FREE. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH SOUTH AND EAST. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...
SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVIEST LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN AND SNOW MAY MIX WITH SOME SLEET AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY SO ANY DAYTIME ACCUMULATION WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO GRASSY AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TOWARD FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROAD SURFACES. TREATED ROADWAYS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ICE FREE. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S...BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
Wednesday / Thursday thoughts 11/6/2012 morning
Well, we have seen a number of model swings over the past day. We had a good agreement a couple days ago, but that has changed. From rain to snow, from onshore to offshore and from strong to weaker. We have seen models flipping all over the place. What does it all mean? Basically what I think is happening is the models are having a tough time accounting for all the players on the field. Upstream blocking, High pressure, Midwest disturbance etc. Taking those into account and then the timing has a great impact on our storm, or lack thereof.
You can see it here on the Water Vapor loop: Notice the darker area marching towards the "swirl" over GA, thats the disturbance trying to "meet up" with the low pressure.
WATER VAPOR LINK
The low pressure is forming off the GA coast as I write. At the same time, a disturbance is shooting through the midwest and trying to catch and meet up with the low off the GA coast. If this can meet up earlier, we could see a stronger, more inland track. If this misses, or the timing is delayed, we get a weaker, further east solution. For those of us who made it through Sandy, we are all rooting for the weaker, out to sea solution. This has been the trend over the past 16 hours.
Now, if the disturbance can "catch" the low earlier, we will be looking at a more inland track. Not so much inland, but more towards the coastal areas, bringing us a greater impact. The earlier the meeting, the stronger the system, the stronger the winds. And, the earlier they meet up, means a more westward track, meaning we stay a majority of rain (snow back into C PA). The further to the east, the better the chance for snow (in the Jersey area). And obviously, it could go so far east we are not even effected.
These types of storms are always touchy here. We have seen all kinds of outcomes. I will say this, any winds will be bad. Any storm surge now at the coast will be bad. Our area is fragile and any impact will have negative effects. My gut feeling as of now says we get a slop fest. The midday runs are coming up and I think we will know more seeing this fresh new data set. Is the futher east solution still looking good or is it going to have a bigger effect on us....more to come after the midday runs!
You can see it here on the Water Vapor loop: Notice the darker area marching towards the "swirl" over GA, thats the disturbance trying to "meet up" with the low pressure.
WATER VAPOR LINK
The low pressure is forming off the GA coast as I write. At the same time, a disturbance is shooting through the midwest and trying to catch and meet up with the low off the GA coast. If this can meet up earlier, we could see a stronger, more inland track. If this misses, or the timing is delayed, we get a weaker, further east solution. For those of us who made it through Sandy, we are all rooting for the weaker, out to sea solution. This has been the trend over the past 16 hours.
Now, if the disturbance can "catch" the low earlier, we will be looking at a more inland track. Not so much inland, but more towards the coastal areas, bringing us a greater impact. The earlier the meeting, the stronger the system, the stronger the winds. And, the earlier they meet up, means a more westward track, meaning we stay a majority of rain (snow back into C PA). The further to the east, the better the chance for snow (in the Jersey area). And obviously, it could go so far east we are not even effected.
These types of storms are always touchy here. We have seen all kinds of outcomes. I will say this, any winds will be bad. Any storm surge now at the coast will be bad. Our area is fragile and any impact will have negative effects. My gut feeling as of now says we get a slop fest. The midday runs are coming up and I think we will know more seeing this fresh new data set. Is the futher east solution still looking good or is it going to have a bigger effect on us....more to come after the midday runs!
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Wednesday / Thursday
It appears that we have a decent agreement in the models regarding a potential Nor'easter set to strike an already vulnerable area Wednesday into Thursday. We will have a low pressure develop off the Georgia / South Carolina coast Tuesday which will move north to just off the Cape Hatteras, NC coast. From there, it will move off the Jersey coast and then up into New England. Much like Sandy, this storm will be pushed along the coast because of a "blocking" situation in the upper atmosphere up around Greenland. This will prevent the storm from moving offshore. In addition, it could aid in slowing the storm down over the area, which has shown up in the models.
What this means for us; #1, the shore will once again get battered with winds and flooding rains. In any other circumstance, this would be your run of the mill nor'easter. With the area and many defenses (dunes, sands etc) already ravaged, any storm is a worst case scenario, but this could be worse since it would be a moderate nor'easter. #2 Inland winds on an already fragile electrical system is another disaster waiting to happen. #3, the trees around here are considerably weaker now after Sandy that any more wind could cause a number of them to topple over. #4, Any rain on top of already flooded areas is never a good mix. We may be in for another 12-18 hour period of strong winds.
There are still some variables that need to be worked out, but a consensus is there that we will be effected by a nor'easter. Some of things still to be determined are how close to the coast doest this move, how strong can the storm become and how fast does it move? A tack closer to the coast would bring more of a wind and rain threat inland, as oppose to a further east track which could limit winds inland. Since the storm will develop off the Georgia / SC coast, how strong can it become? This is shown by the pressure. The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. This is important too because the stronger the storm can get will create a bigger gradient between high and low pressures which will correlate down to us in winds. lower the pressure, greater the winds. and the third wildcard is the blocking. The stronger the block, the slower our storm moves. Models have been showing the storm stalling for a period of time between AC, NJ and NYC/Long Island.
As of now, rain develops Wednesday and will be heavy at times. Winds will kick up as the storm moves closer. I do think this is a rain event. Snows will be confined to Central PA, Poconos and portions of New England (maybe NW NJ as the storm moves away). There will be more to come as the models come in. Quick updates of the models will be posted on twitter @townerswxpage and on my facebook page Towner's Weather PAGE.
What this means for us; #1, the shore will once again get battered with winds and flooding rains. In any other circumstance, this would be your run of the mill nor'easter. With the area and many defenses (dunes, sands etc) already ravaged, any storm is a worst case scenario, but this could be worse since it would be a moderate nor'easter. #2 Inland winds on an already fragile electrical system is another disaster waiting to happen. #3, the trees around here are considerably weaker now after Sandy that any more wind could cause a number of them to topple over. #4, Any rain on top of already flooded areas is never a good mix. We may be in for another 12-18 hour period of strong winds.
There are still some variables that need to be worked out, but a consensus is there that we will be effected by a nor'easter. Some of things still to be determined are how close to the coast doest this move, how strong can the storm become and how fast does it move? A tack closer to the coast would bring more of a wind and rain threat inland, as oppose to a further east track which could limit winds inland. Since the storm will develop off the Georgia / SC coast, how strong can it become? This is shown by the pressure. The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm. This is important too because the stronger the storm can get will create a bigger gradient between high and low pressures which will correlate down to us in winds. lower the pressure, greater the winds. and the third wildcard is the blocking. The stronger the block, the slower our storm moves. Models have been showing the storm stalling for a period of time between AC, NJ and NYC/Long Island.
As of now, rain develops Wednesday and will be heavy at times. Winds will kick up as the storm moves closer. I do think this is a rain event. Snows will be confined to Central PA, Poconos and portions of New England (maybe NW NJ as the storm moves away). There will be more to come as the models come in. Quick updates of the models will be posted on twitter @townerswxpage and on my facebook page Towner's Weather PAGE.
Friday, November 2, 2012
A Look Into Next Week
models are once again a buzz with a potential coastal storm for next week. This appears to be the time period from Wednesday through Thursday. The GFS and Euro are still jumping around on solutions, but both show a threat. I will be monitoring it, as any additional storm condition could hamper a lot of the recovery efforts and clean up. More to come. Here are some of the models and what they are showing:
Euro
Noon yesterday:
Euro
Noon yesterday:
Midnight last night:
GFS:
Midnight last night:
Todays morning run:
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)