While a lot of models have shifted west with the afternoon and evening runs, i think the eventual track will take it just off the NJ coast into Long Island. We have seen this before. When I look at snowstorms, there is always a trend either way, and then a correction the other way before meeting somewhere in the middle. You also have to remember, the closer it gets, the better the data sampling is. For instance, the frontal boundary which will act as the "kicker" moving the storm further out to sea is still off shore in the Pacific NW. In this area, there is not a whole lot of data that can be obtained since there are few devices to ingest the data. Commercial airliners are the primary data collectors. Once on shore, weather offices will launch balloons with sensors and have other measurement tools. So, really it is a wait and see thing until all the data can be sampled. This is a primary reason for some of the differences in the way models handle this.
In any case, I think we will eventually see a track from OBX to just off the Jersey Coast. I foresee heavy rain, high winds and significant storm surge along the coast.
Another aspect one can argue will provide fuel for Irene is the water temperatures. From its current posiiton, to the OBX, the water temperatures is in the 80's. this will allow the strength to be maintained, and could aid in further strengthening. here is the graphic:
Next NHC update is at 11pm. I will do a quick update then and see where we stand. Here is the 8pm track:
Corey
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