Wednesday, August 31, 2011
8/31/2011 Almost Hurricane Katia, Still Chugging Along
Tropical Storm Katia is still chugging across the Atlantic. As of now, she is a strong tropical storm with winds sustained at 65mph. By tonight, we will most likely be dealing with Hurricane Katia. All eyes will then be turned to her projected path and if there will be any threat to the US. Here is the current 5 day path:
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Tropical Storm Katia is born
Well, our TD-12 has now strengthened enough to be worthy of a name. Tropical Storm Katia is forecasted to become a Hurricane Thursday Morning. She is still be days away from being a threat. More to come
Monday, August 29, 2011
Dont Look Now- TD12
While the area is still recovering from Hurricane Irene, just a heads up that The National Hurricane Center is tracking another storm off the coast of Africa (TD12= Tropical Depression 12 not a named storm YET). Here is the 5 day outlook/track of the next system that is being monitored.
More to come
More to come
Sunday, August 28, 2011
8/28/2011 Hurricane Irene Update
From last night, there were numerous tornado warnings through the area. There were confirmed reports in Delaware, have not heard yet from around here. Had to get my kids up and move to the basement 2 times last night! Anyways, here are the warnings that went out last night for our area:
Saturday, August 27, 2011
TORNADO WARNING MERCER MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES
Tornado Warning (New Jersey)
Aug 27, at 10:56 PM EDT
Aug 27, at 11:30 PM EDT
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHWESTERN MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
NORTHWESTERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
* UNTIL 1130 PM EDT * AT 1055 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR JACKSONS MILLS...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOMS RIVER...MOVING WEST AT 35 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SIX FLAGS THEME PARK BY 1105 PM EDT...
CLARKSBURG BY 1110 PM EDT...
IMLAYSTOWN...CREAM RIDGE AND ROOSEVELT BY 1115 PM EDT...
ALLENTOWN...WINDSOR AND HIGHTSTOWN BY 1125 PM EDT...
EDINBURG AND CROSSWICKS BY 1130 PM EDT...
Mercer; Monmouth; Ocean
This NWS weather information is brought to you by Weather Alert USA for the iPhone
Aug 27, at 11:30 PM EDT
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHWESTERN MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
NORTHWESTERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
* UNTIL 1130 PM EDT * AT 1055 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR JACKSONS MILLS...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOMS RIVER...MOVING WEST AT 35 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SIX FLAGS THEME PARK BY 1105 PM EDT...
CLARKSBURG BY 1110 PM EDT...
IMLAYSTOWN...CREAM RIDGE AND ROOSEVELT BY 1115 PM EDT...
ALLENTOWN...WINDSOR AND HIGHTSTOWN BY 1125 PM EDT...
EDINBURG AND CROSSWICKS BY 1130 PM EDT...
Mercer; Monmouth; Ocean
This NWS weather information is brought to you by Weather Alert USA for the iPhone
TORNADO WARNING CENTRAL BURLINGTON!
 IEMBot PHI (@iembot_phi)8/27/11 10:08 PM #PHI issues Tornado Warning for Burlington, Ocean [NJ] till 10:45 PM EDT http://t.co/7f9S2dH |
8/27/2011 Hurricane Irene Night Update
1. MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS throughout Southern and Central NJ. HEED Warnings! Damage has been reported all over Delaware from tornadoes.
2. Extremely heavy rains are moving into the area. Please do not venture out. Emergency Service response has been STOPPED in some areas until conditions lighten up.
3. We are in the crux of the hurricane now, at these conditions will last for another 8 hours or so.
4. IRENE is a massive 703 miles long. Stretching from NC to Boston!!
5. over 1,000,000 people without power.
2. Extremely heavy rains are moving into the area. Please do not venture out. Emergency Service response has been STOPPED in some areas until conditions lighten up.
3. We are in the crux of the hurricane now, at these conditions will last for another 8 hours or so.
4. IRENE is a massive 703 miles long. Stretching from NC to Boston!!
5. over 1,000,000 people without power.
8/27/2011 Hurricane Irene Evening Update
1. As i have been harping on, rain will be the big issue tonight. Most parts, it has been raining since just after noon. We are entering into the "main" part of the storm, and will be lasting until Sunday morning. Many locations already are approaching 2" but here is a graphic for totals so far:
2. Numerous Tornadoes have been reported. Tornadoes have been confirmed in NC, VA and DE. Please, heed the watches and warnings. These tornadoes can spawn at any time, and will be fast movers. Here is the watch...includes Southern NJ, Burlington, Ocean, Monmouth and Middlesex Counties:
3. 1,000,000 people have been reported to be without power. Please make precautions now for power outages!
4. Irene is still a hurricane at 80mph sustained winds.
5. Just an FYI- Richmond, VA (~100 miles from the coast) reported a wind gust to 71mph.....they are a lot further than any of us in Central NJ.
2. Numerous Tornadoes have been reported. Tornadoes have been confirmed in NC, VA and DE. Please, heed the watches and warnings. These tornadoes can spawn at any time, and will be fast movers. Here is the watch...includes Southern NJ, Burlington, Ocean, Monmouth and Middlesex Counties:
3. 1,000,000 people have been reported to be without power. Please make precautions now for power outages!
4. Irene is still a hurricane at 80mph sustained winds.
5. Just an FYI- Richmond, VA (~100 miles from the coast) reported a wind gust to 71mph.....they are a lot further than any of us in Central NJ.
8/27/2011 Hurricane Irene Early Afternoon Update
1. New Bern, NC has reported 17" of rain. And they still have a long way to go.
2. CNN is reporting 550,000 people without power.
3. A Tornado has destroyed a home on Sandbridge, VA
4. Reports of people having to be rescued off their roofs in Kingston, NC
5. A Defined eye has no re-appeared on Irene:
6. NHC 2pm update, no changes.
2. CNN is reporting 550,000 people without power.
3. A Tornado has destroyed a home on Sandbridge, VA
4. Reports of people having to be rescued off their roofs in Kingston, NC
5. A Defined eye has no re-appeared on Irene:
6. NHC 2pm update, no changes.
8/27/2011 Hurricane Irene Noon Update
1. Irene has really come to a crawl, but the overall storm is widening. Rain is breaking out up through central NJ. Also, the overall structure is looking better. Precip has replaced dry air on the western side and is cycling through.
2. Rainfall amounts so far in NC:
3. A number of tornadoes are being picked up by radar. If you land under one of these bands with yellow or red, be on the look out.
5. estimates of approaching 500,000 w/o power in NC, VA and MD. This number WILL rise.
6. Latest track takes Irene right to Sandy Hook, NJ (bad news for NYC, this brings storm surge to your doorstep).
7. This storm is just as dangerous as advertised! Heed warnings!
2. Rainfall amounts so far in NC:
3. A number of tornadoes are being picked up by radar. If you land under one of these bands with yellow or red, be on the look out.
5. estimates of approaching 500,000 w/o power in NC, VA and MD. This number WILL rise.
6. Latest track takes Irene right to Sandy Hook, NJ (bad news for NYC, this brings storm surge to your doorstep).
7. This storm is just as dangerous as advertised! Heed warnings!
8/27/2011 Hurricane Irene Mid Morning Update
1. Rain has entered NJ...currently raining along the SE coast pushing NW.
2. Reports closing in on 8" of rain in NC. These totals are reaching 100 miles from the coast.
3. Numerous reports of wind damage to homes and trees inland.
4. Irene is looking more "healthy" now than at any point yesterday. Radar showing storms now forming on the western side of the center of circulation
5. Barrier Islands have been holding together pretty well.
6. over 200,000 people without power in NC
Here are some graphics:
2. Reports closing in on 8" of rain in NC. These totals are reaching 100 miles from the coast.
3. Numerous reports of wind damage to homes and trees inland.
4. Irene is looking more "healthy" now than at any point yesterday. Radar showing storms now forming on the western side of the center of circulation
5. Barrier Islands have been holding together pretty well.
6. over 200,000 people without power in NC
Here are some graphics:
8/27/2011 Hurricane Irene Morning Update
some things morning:
1. Sustained winds for Irene are 90mph.
2. Storm surge in NC is reported to be around 8 feet in some locations.
3. While Irene has made landfall near Cape Lookout, NC....rain is already spreading up to the Deleware Beaches and inches towards NJ. What does that mean, well, this will be a long rain event!
4. Numerous rotations were present on radar in NC with heavier bands of rain. This is the reason why tornado watches have extended further north, and will likely be extended into our area when Irene gets closer.
5. Regardless of the "strength" of Irene, this threat has and always be flooding!!! In fact, to me, the threat of flooding looks better today than it has at any point up to now. That precipitation field is HUGE! Usually, its common to see heavier bands with hurricanes, but this is solid!
6. While winds may be less than anticipated, its not going to take much to knock trees over. The ground is soaked!
Here are some early morning graphics:
Tornado Watch:
More to come!
1. Sustained winds for Irene are 90mph.
2. Storm surge in NC is reported to be around 8 feet in some locations.
3. While Irene has made landfall near Cape Lookout, NC....rain is already spreading up to the Deleware Beaches and inches towards NJ. What does that mean, well, this will be a long rain event!
4. Numerous rotations were present on radar in NC with heavier bands of rain. This is the reason why tornado watches have extended further north, and will likely be extended into our area when Irene gets closer.
5. Regardless of the "strength" of Irene, this threat has and always be flooding!!! In fact, to me, the threat of flooding looks better today than it has at any point up to now. That precipitation field is HUGE! Usually, its common to see heavier bands with hurricanes, but this is solid!
6. While winds may be less than anticipated, its not going to take much to knock trees over. The ground is soaked!
Here are some early morning graphics:
Tornado Watch:
More to come!
Friday, August 26, 2011
8/26/2011 Hurricane Irene Night Update
As of 11pm, NHC has made no changes to Irene. Irene still has 100mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 951mb. It appears Irene is strengthening, and a lot of the dry air that was getting entwined in the storm earlier has been pushed out.
In any case, Eastern NC is getting HAMMERED with rain and tornadoes.
RADAR FROM EAST CAROLINA
More Updates in the AM
In any case, Eastern NC is getting HAMMERED with rain and tornadoes.
RADAR FROM EAST CAROLINA
More Updates in the AM
8/26/2011 Evening Hurricane Irene Update
So, what do we know about Irene now that she is within radar view?
1. This is an immense storm. With an immense windfield. I posted a video from a town 150 miles from the coast with sustained winds already blowing trees.
2. Although Irene is a category 2 Hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph, THIS IS STILL A DANGEROUS STORM. As I have told a few people today....there is no difference if you get hit by a car at 100mph or 115 mph...your still f'd
3. As of now, Hurricane Irene is STRENGTHENING and we may have an eye present on the 11pm NHC update. Pressure has fallen 4mb. Hurricane Irene is entering the gulf stream and there is a chance of strengthening, or atleast maintaining herself.
4. a tornado watch is issued for a large part of the northern area of the hurricane. A number of cells are rotating per radar.
5. The threat inland has always been flooding rains and power outages. THIS WILL STILL HAPPEN, in fact, in many locations more than 6" of rain will fall. This, on top of, 12"+ that has fallen in the past two weeks combined with ANY wind will topple trees. THIS IS STILL AS BAD AS ADVERTISED.
6. There is a chance that Our area gets some enhanced rain from a stalled out frontal boundary that passed through the area yesterday. With that, it will act as a conveyor belt for moisture to start streaming north.
7. NWS and NHC still say this storm will have a duration for our area for greater than 20 Hours!
8. Notice the brighter colors around the center... strengthening:
More to come
1. This is an immense storm. With an immense windfield. I posted a video from a town 150 miles from the coast with sustained winds already blowing trees.
2. Although Irene is a category 2 Hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph, THIS IS STILL A DANGEROUS STORM. As I have told a few people today....there is no difference if you get hit by a car at 100mph or 115 mph...your still f'd
3. As of now, Hurricane Irene is STRENGTHENING and we may have an eye present on the 11pm NHC update. Pressure has fallen 4mb. Hurricane Irene is entering the gulf stream and there is a chance of strengthening, or atleast maintaining herself.
4. a tornado watch is issued for a large part of the northern area of the hurricane. A number of cells are rotating per radar.
5. The threat inland has always been flooding rains and power outages. THIS WILL STILL HAPPEN, in fact, in many locations more than 6" of rain will fall. This, on top of, 12"+ that has fallen in the past two weeks combined with ANY wind will topple trees. THIS IS STILL AS BAD AS ADVERTISED.
6. There is a chance that Our area gets some enhanced rain from a stalled out frontal boundary that passed through the area yesterday. With that, it will act as a conveyor belt for moisture to start streaming north.
7. NWS and NHC still say this storm will have a duration for our area for greater than 20 Hours!
8. Notice the brighter colors around the center... strengthening:
More to come
First Video From Hurricane Irene
Sent to me from my NC corespondent. She is located in Franklinton, NC...about 150 miles from the coast of NC. She is on the very outer bands now. Here is the first impacts of winds.
View Larger Map
Update coming out soon
View Larger Map
Update coming out soon
8/26/2011 Hurricane Irene Early Afternoon Update
I apologize for the lack of updates today, been running around trying to get everything ready! Really though, no changes to anything. It does appear that the brunt of the storm happens overnight tomorrow until Sunday midday. It is probably a safe bet to expect at least 6" of rain through the storm. Winds will probably range from 40-60mph. Obviously, higher winds will be along the shore. Still appears we will be on the western side of the hurricane. Anyone reading who may be on the east side, your chances for tornadoes increases on that side, but can pop up anywhere.
Hopefully everyone has gotten their preparations in order!
Here is the 2pm NHC 5 day track:
Hopefully everyone has gotten their preparations in order!
Here is the 2pm NHC 5 day track:
8/26/2011 Hurricane Irene Morning Update - Don't be fooled by a Category 2 rating
So, Irene is now a strong category 2 Hurricane. What exactly does that mean.....in my opinion....nothing. Its central pressure is still very low, which tells us its not weakening. Winds have gone from 115mph to 110mph. These types of drops and increases are not unexpected. If you were hit by a car doing 115mph or 11mph...is the damage going to be any less? NO
Please don't get suckered in to believing that a category 2 Hurricane is that much weaker, or even makes a difference. Irene is a large storm. Irene is going to be hitting the Gulf Stream over the next few hours, and may allow for some strengthening.
Model guidance over the night has sped up the Hurricane, and we may actually be in the heart of it when we wake up Sunday and it may be out by Sunday Night.
Here are some morning graphics:
Please don't get suckered in to believing that a category 2 Hurricane is that much weaker, or even makes a difference. Irene is a large storm. Irene is going to be hitting the Gulf Stream over the next few hours, and may allow for some strengthening.
Model guidance over the night has sped up the Hurricane, and we may actually be in the heart of it when we wake up Sunday and it may be out by Sunday Night.
Here are some morning graphics:
Thursday, August 25, 2011
8/25/11 Hurricane Irene Night Update
Hurricane Irene is currently spinning east of Florida. Latest observations from the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is that the pressure is starting to fall, meaning that Irene is strengthening. An eye has become more apparent over the past few hours and we will have a period of about 12 hours now where Irene will be able to strengthen. I still think she will make a Cat 4 before weakening.
A side note, buoy 41010 (google: buoy 41010) east of Cape Canaveral, Fla is reporting 29 ft waves.
Irene, per the Weather Channel, is 430 miles wide. That is the same distance from Baltimore, MD to Portland, Maine (as the crow flys).
Here is the 5 day forecast as of 8pm:
Here are some current shots:
More to come! Interested to see at 11pm if she becomes a cat 4 hurricane!
A side note, buoy 41010 (google: buoy 41010) east of Cape Canaveral, Fla is reporting 29 ft waves.
Irene, per the Weather Channel, is 430 miles wide. That is the same distance from Baltimore, MD to Portland, Maine (as the crow flys).
Here is the 5 day forecast as of 8pm:
Here are some current shots:
More to come! Interested to see at 11pm if she becomes a cat 4 hurricane!
Something that does not happen often- Hurricane Watch Issued
Hurricane Watch (New Jersey)
Aug 25, at 06:08 PM EDT
Aug 26, at 06:15 PM EDT
NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN SPECIFIC TO YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AGENCY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE WILL IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...
.NEW INFORMATION...
THIS UPDATE IS A CORRECTION TO ADD GLOUCESTER COUNTY NEW JERSEY TO THE HURRICANE WATCH. .AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE... AND THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. THIS STATEMENT ALSO APPLIES TO COASTAL AREAS FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE INCLUDING ALL OF THE DELAWARE BAY. .WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...NEW CASTLE...KENT...INLAND SUSSEX...DELAWARE BEACHES...WESTERN MONMOUTH...EASTERN MONMOUTH...SALEM...CAMDEN...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...OCEAN...CUMBERLAND...GLOUCESTER...ATLANTIC...CAPE MAY...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN... SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON...DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA. FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
CECIL...KENT MD...QUEEN ANNES...TALBOT...CAROLINE...MERCER...
CHESTER...MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED AREAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED AREAS. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS. .STORM INFORMATION...
AT 6 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0N...LONGITUDE 77.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 840 MILES SOUTH OF DOVER DE...OR ABOUT 830 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE MAY NJ. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 115 MPH. .SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAVE NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY. .PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY SHORTLY WITH SPECIFIC LOCAL DETAILS.
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
Atlantic; Atlantic Coastal Cape May; Camden; Cape May; Coastal Atlantic; Cumberland; Eastern Monmouth; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Salem; Southeastern Burlington; Western Monmouth
This NWS weather information is brought to you by Weather Alert USA for the iPhone
Aug 25, at 06:08 PM EDT
Aug 26, at 06:15 PM EDT
NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN SPECIFIC TO YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AGENCY. MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE WILL IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...
.NEW INFORMATION...
THIS UPDATE IS A CORRECTION TO ADD GLOUCESTER COUNTY NEW JERSEY TO THE HURRICANE WATCH. .AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE... AND THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. THIS STATEMENT ALSO APPLIES TO COASTAL AREAS FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE INCLUDING ALL OF THE DELAWARE BAY. .WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...NEW CASTLE...KENT...INLAND SUSSEX...DELAWARE BEACHES...WESTERN MONMOUTH...EASTERN MONMOUTH...SALEM...CAMDEN...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...OCEAN...CUMBERLAND...GLOUCESTER...ATLANTIC...CAPE MAY...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN... SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON...DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA. FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
CECIL...KENT MD...QUEEN ANNES...TALBOT...CAROLINE...MERCER...
CHESTER...MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED AREAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED AREAS. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS. .STORM INFORMATION...
AT 6 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0N...LONGITUDE 77.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 840 MILES SOUTH OF DOVER DE...OR ABOUT 830 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE MAY NJ. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 115 MPH. .SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAVE NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY. .PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY SHORTLY WITH SPECIFIC LOCAL DETAILS.
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
Atlantic; Atlantic Coastal Cape May; Camden; Cape May; Coastal Atlantic; Cumberland; Eastern Monmouth; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Salem; Southeastern Burlington; Western Monmouth
This NWS weather information is brought to you by Weather Alert USA for the iPhone
8/25/2011 Hurricane Irene Update- NHC
The National Hurricane Center has come out with their 2pm track. Still holds with a dangerous storm for our area. Still holding as a category 3 Hurricane. Here is the graphic:
MORE TO COME!
MORE TO COME!
8/25/11 Midday Quick Update
-NJ Governor Chris Christie has declared a "State of Emergency" for the state of NJ.
Yesterday I was talking about models narrowing down the track as other features hit land and better data can be gathered.....well, it is happening. A number of models are converging on a solution, and the outcome is scary. So, lets break it down with some graphics:
GFS Model noon run:
Hydrological Prediction Center updated precipitation amount:
Irene is Starting to strengthen once again, would not be surprised if she becomes a Cat 4 by tonight. Images:
MORE TO COME! 2pm is the next release from the NHC
Yesterday I was talking about models narrowing down the track as other features hit land and better data can be gathered.....well, it is happening. A number of models are converging on a solution, and the outcome is scary. So, lets break it down with some graphics:
GFS Model noon run:
Hydrological Prediction Center updated precipitation amount:
Irene is Starting to strengthen once again, would not be surprised if she becomes a Cat 4 by tonight. Images:
MORE TO COME! 2pm is the next release from the NHC
8/25/2011 Hurricane Irene 11AM Update
As of 11:00, the NHC has actually adjusted the 5 day track further west where Irene may actually make landfall along the Jersey coast. Again, if this track verifies, it will be devastating for the area. Expect massive evacuation requests to start along the MD, DEL, and NJ coasts starting today or tomorrow. Get what you have to get done down da shore before the rodeo starts down there. Here is the latest with the 5 day track:
If I have not stressed enough how bad this can be, here is an excerpt from the Hydrological Prediction Center from there morning briefing:
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
948 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
VALID 12Z MON AUG 29 2011 - 12Z THU SEP 01 2011
...MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE TO STRONGLY AFFECT THE EAST COAST FROM NC
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADJUST WESTWARD AS HAS
THE LAST SEVERAL NHC TRACK FORECASTS WHICH NOW HAVE EYE OF IRENE
COMING THRU THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS LATE SATURDAY BEFORE
GRAZING THE DELMARVA AND NEW JERSEY THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WITH
MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG ITS ENTIRE TRACK
WITH VERY HIGH WINDS/STORM SURGE/OCEAN OVERWASH/BEACH
EROSION/SOUND AND BAY SIDE COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREME TIDE
POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE WILL BE
COMMON WITH GREATLY INCREASED INLAND FLOOD POTENTIAL. REFER TO THE
NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE ALONG WITH LOCAL NWS
WARNINGS/STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM NC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
MORE UPDATES TO COME!
If I have not stressed enough how bad this can be, here is an excerpt from the Hydrological Prediction Center from there morning briefing:
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
948 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
VALID 12Z MON AUG 29 2011 - 12Z THU SEP 01 2011
...MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE TO STRONGLY AFFECT THE EAST COAST FROM NC
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADJUST WESTWARD AS HAS
THE LAST SEVERAL NHC TRACK FORECASTS WHICH NOW HAVE EYE OF IRENE
COMING THRU THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS LATE SATURDAY BEFORE
GRAZING THE DELMARVA AND NEW JERSEY THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WITH
MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG ITS ENTIRE TRACK
WITH VERY HIGH WINDS/STORM SURGE/OCEAN OVERWASH/BEACH
EROSION/SOUND AND BAY SIDE COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREME TIDE
POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE WILL BE
COMMON WITH GREATLY INCREASED INLAND FLOOD POTENTIAL. REFER TO THE
NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE ALONG WITH LOCAL NWS
WARNINGS/STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM NC INTO NEW ENGLAND.
MORE UPDATES TO COME!
8/25/2011 Hurricane Irene AM Update
Wow, it appears we are setting the stage for a down right devastating hurricane. Model guidance has really trended west. Some, going as far inland as Central PA. Here is the graphic depicting storm tracks based on different models. Quite a bit further west than last night. Here is the graphic:
This is going to set the stage for potentially devastating floods, major power outages and significant storm surge at the shore. Also remember, if you are on the east side of the storm, your potential for a tornado is also greatly increased. It has been some time this area has been hit by a storm like this (actually, prior to me being born). Graphic on rain amounts from Hydrological Prediction Center (this also includes todays tstorms, but you get the idea):
While there is still some time for this track to change, time is getting limited, and the closer we get, the margin of error decreases. Today will be very important day in terms of modeling because we should get a better sampling of data. I have been harping this for the past couple posts. NWS offices have already sent a memo out increasing the number of weather balloon launches in the Northern and Western states. Not sure if the Canadian Weather service is doing the same or not.
Here is the 5 day track and some other graphics:
More updates to come!
This is going to set the stage for potentially devastating floods, major power outages and significant storm surge at the shore. Also remember, if you are on the east side of the storm, your potential for a tornado is also greatly increased. It has been some time this area has been hit by a storm like this (actually, prior to me being born). Graphic on rain amounts from Hydrological Prediction Center (this also includes todays tstorms, but you get the idea):
While there is still some time for this track to change, time is getting limited, and the closer we get, the margin of error decreases. Today will be very important day in terms of modeling because we should get a better sampling of data. I have been harping this for the past couple posts. NWS offices have already sent a memo out increasing the number of weather balloon launches in the Northern and Western states. Not sure if the Canadian Weather service is doing the same or not.
Here is the 5 day track and some other graphics:
More updates to come!
8/25/11 Hurricane Irene Bad News
Overnight models trended even further west bringing the track of Irene
right along the Jersey Coast. The eye wall would literally go right up
the coast. Dangerous situation developing, especially for those down
at the shore. will be doing a full update when I get home.
right along the Jersey Coast. The eye wall would literally go right up
the coast. Dangerous situation developing, especially for those down
at the shore. will be doing a full update when I get home.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
8/24/2011 Hurricane Irene Update
quick update on Irene....NHC has put out their 5 day track which is represented below in a graphic. Will be back tomorrow with further updates. Looking forward to tomorrows model runs to finally start honing in on a consensus.
NHC 5 day track:
Night time model runs:
NHC 5 day track:
Night time model runs:
Hurricane Irene Late Evening Update 8/24/11
While a lot of models have shifted west with the afternoon and evening runs, i think the eventual track will take it just off the NJ coast into Long Island. We have seen this before. When I look at snowstorms, there is always a trend either way, and then a correction the other way before meeting somewhere in the middle. You also have to remember, the closer it gets, the better the data sampling is. For instance, the frontal boundary which will act as the "kicker" moving the storm further out to sea is still off shore in the Pacific NW. In this area, there is not a whole lot of data that can be obtained since there are few devices to ingest the data. Commercial airliners are the primary data collectors. Once on shore, weather offices will launch balloons with sensors and have other measurement tools. So, really it is a wait and see thing until all the data can be sampled. This is a primary reason for some of the differences in the way models handle this.
In any case, I think we will eventually see a track from OBX to just off the Jersey Coast. I foresee heavy rain, high winds and significant storm surge along the coast.
Another aspect one can argue will provide fuel for Irene is the water temperatures. From its current posiiton, to the OBX, the water temperatures is in the 80's. this will allow the strength to be maintained, and could aid in further strengthening. here is the graphic:
Next NHC update is at 11pm. I will do a quick update then and see where we stand. Here is the 8pm track:
Corey
In any case, I think we will eventually see a track from OBX to just off the Jersey Coast. I foresee heavy rain, high winds and significant storm surge along the coast.
Another aspect one can argue will provide fuel for Irene is the water temperatures. From its current posiiton, to the OBX, the water temperatures is in the 80's. this will allow the strength to be maintained, and could aid in further strengthening. here is the graphic:
Next NHC update is at 11pm. I will do a quick update then and see where we stand. Here is the 8pm track:
Corey
Some Tips For Those Down Da Shore
This was passed on to me by a friend of mine. Some good advice for those who may find themselves having to do the following:
"An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" - Benjamin Franklin
To all:
My parents are hurricane veterans and survivors of Hurricane Katrina. Here are some time-tested tips if you have a Shore house.
Bring all patio furniture indoors or lock in a shed. Replace the shed lock if it is rusted or worn.
Make sure there isn’t any debris, large tree branches, etc., lying around in the yard. Get rid of firewood. The worst problem my folks had in Katrina was bringing firewood into the garage. When the tidal surge hit, the logs broke through the doors and drywall, floated through the walls and broke lots of things that might have been saved.
For windows, my parents eventually had custom window covers made for their sliding glass doors. But plywood and/or the criss-cross tape method works to absorb pressure. Do all windows, even small ones.
Fill a bathtub with water before the storm starts so you have at least one “flush” worth after you come back. You might be without water.
Clean out the fridge before you leave. Spoiled food in the fridge is the worst.
My parents got in the habit of taking a time-stamped video of the interior and exterior of house right before they left before a storm. In Katrina, this sped up the claims process immensely.
Good luck to all,
Mary
"An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" - Benjamin Franklin
To all:
My parents are hurricane veterans and survivors of Hurricane Katrina. Here are some time-tested tips if you have a Shore house.
Bring all patio furniture indoors or lock in a shed. Replace the shed lock if it is rusted or worn.
Make sure there isn’t any debris, large tree branches, etc., lying around in the yard. Get rid of firewood. The worst problem my folks had in Katrina was bringing firewood into the garage. When the tidal surge hit, the logs broke through the doors and drywall, floated through the walls and broke lots of things that might have been saved.
For windows, my parents eventually had custom window covers made for their sliding glass doors. But plywood and/or the criss-cross tape method works to absorb pressure. Do all windows, even small ones.
Fill a bathtub with water before the storm starts so you have at least one “flush” worth after you come back. You might be without water.
Clean out the fridge before you leave. Spoiled food in the fridge is the worst.
My parents got in the habit of taking a time-stamped video of the interior and exterior of house right before they left before a storm. In Katrina, this sped up the claims process immensely.
Good luck to all,
Mary
8/24/2011 Evening Hurricane Irene Update
The National Hurricane Center has updated their track for Irene as of 5pm. It moves it a bit further west, over the Outer Banks, but up here keeps it similar to just off the coast. A lot of model guidance today has trended west with the storm, closer to the coast. The Euro model actually has a direct hit on Cape May, NJ and brings it directly over NYC. If the Euro track verifies, it would be devastating to NJ., especially coastal areas. Even just off the coast, we would still experience a strong impact.
Models will continue to waffle with the track over the next couple days, as they are still ingesting data. The data should become better once a few variables move closer to the area. For now, I think the prudent thing to do would be prepare as if we get a direct hit and hope it goes further off the coast. In any case, expect flooding rains, strong winds and down the shore, expect some serious storm surge. Pay attention to high and low tides as that will aid storm surge during high tides.
As of now, it appears storm conditions will start overnight on Saturday and last through a large part of Sunday.
More to come! Prepare for the worst, hope for the best!
some graphics:
Models will continue to waffle with the track over the next couple days, as they are still ingesting data. The data should become better once a few variables move closer to the area. For now, I think the prudent thing to do would be prepare as if we get a direct hit and hope it goes further off the coast. In any case, expect flooding rains, strong winds and down the shore, expect some serious storm surge. Pay attention to high and low tides as that will aid storm surge during high tides.
As of now, it appears storm conditions will start overnight on Saturday and last through a large part of Sunday.
More to come! Prepare for the worst, hope for the best!
some graphics:
Hurricane Irene 8/24/11 11am update
here is the updated info on Irene as of 11am. Still holding as a Cat 3 Hurricane, likely to strengthen to a Cat 4 tomorrow. Here are some track, TS wind field and satellite graphics:
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