Don't look now

Another major east coast storm is being shown on the Euro model ( the
same one that had the last bomb at this hour range. Right now, it has
snow pushing into the region in 156 hours (next Thursday-Friday) More
to come!

2010 Blizzard Start Meriden, CT

A quick video I shot at the start of the heavier snow and winds in Meriden, CT



Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Heavy snow band

For those of you who are fortunate enough to have one of those heavy
snow bands park over you, 6-10" overnight is probably a good bet

Thunder snow

Reported in Plainsboro Twp, NJ

Thundersnow

Being reported in Fairfield, NJ. Hoping to get some video to post soon!

Heavy snow bands....

Have set up shop all over central NJ. These bands are stacked up out
to the ocean and keep developing. Going to be stuck under those heavy
snows for a while.... 1-2' will be commonplace

Heavy snow

1-2"/hr snow bands are moving onshore over coastal NJ. These bands
willing over the entire Philly-NYC corridor between 2-3pm. Snowfall
rates will increase and chances for thunder snow begin

Snow being reported...

In Florence Twp, Plainsboro and Trenton. Expect snow to start and
become moderate pretty quickly. Also, some real intense bands are
coming on shore down by Cape May, NJ. These bands will become
commonplace as the storm intensifies over the area.

Also hear the NFL is looking to postpone the Eagles game.... Hope they
don't, would be nice to watch the game in the snow

Once the snow starts....

expect it to become pretty moderate pretty quickly. There are really good signs of intense snow bands and thundersnow setting up for the afternoon and evening hours. Please send any thundersnow video or heavy snow pictures to:

coreytowner.photos@picasaweb.com

Thanks in advance

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Developing Snows

Snow has pushed into Southern NJ and is making a push north. Precipitation is moving almost due north (which is a good thing, if you like snow). One thing for sure, it appears that the storm is really intensifying off the NC coast, evident in thunderstorm development showing up on radar. What needs to be watched now is obviously where the storm tracks, but also the speeds. There is a chance this thing could stall, and dump a heavy amount of snow over an area. Where exactly that happens, we will have to watch where that sets up. I also mentioned about thundersnow last night, which is becoming very evident and plausible today. In fact, the Storm prediction Center has placed a high likely hood of mesoscale banding to set up shop over NJ. See link:

Mesoscale banding is where intense snowfall rates will set up on the average of 1-2" per hour, and is the best likely hood of where thundersnow can develop.

Another thing to look at, the winds will really begin to crank this afternoon and night. This will create near zero visibility, considerable amounts of blowing and drifting snow and wide scale power outages. Please prepare yourselves should the power be lost for an extended period of time.

I am still thinking 10-16" statewide, 16" in the areas where the heavy snow banding sets up.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

FYI

The central pressure of the storm is progged to be around 980mb off
the coast of DelMarVa, which is the equivalent of a category 1
Hurricane! So, essentially, we are looking at a strengthening category
1 Hurricane of snow!

Getting closer

Snow has been reported in Waldorf, MD and on the outskirts of DC. This
may be a couple hours earlier than thought, so, for the NJ area expect
snow to be falling when you wake up. Man, the more I am looking at
models, I really think thundersnow is going to be commonplace tomorrow
afternoon and evening!

Models are all still on track, not a matter if, but when!

Impressive, intense storm brewing

All indications are we will be waking up to snowy scene tomorrow.
Conditions will worsen through the day, reaching near blizzard
conditions at times. Intense snowfall rates of 1-2"/hour can also be
expected in the more intense bands that set up. I would anticipate a
snow globe scene tomorrow night in Philly for the Eagles game. Also,
thundersnow can also not be ruled out in the intense bands. All in
all, I think between 10-16" falls, 16" in the more prolific snow
bands. The winds will also be quite strong, especially when the storm
starts cranking and I would not be surprised to see Mt Holly NWS raise
blizzard warnings tomorrow afternoon! Traveling will be treacherous,
and do to the amount of snow that will fall, and the strong winds,
expect scattered power outages.

Enjoy the rest of the day! More to come!

Oh, and

a great re-has by NBC 10 Philadelphia Meteorologist Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz on the model madness this week!

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Big_Changes_in_Snow_Predictions_Going_Into_Potential_Storm_Philadelphia-112445454.html

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Storm Update

Wow, the craziness of the models this week. We have been on a rollercoaster of solutions, but there appears to be a consensus formed. All major modeling now shows a significant East Coast Snowstorm. This storm has watches and warnings issued from NE Mississippi to Coastal Maine. This will truly be a Nor'Easter!

Look for snow to overspread the area Sunday Morning and will gradually intensify to the peak of the storm in the late afternoon and evening hours. Snow will taper off early Monday morning and we should be waking up to 8-12" of snow on the ground. Shifts in the storm could increase or decrease the amounts. I am going with those numbers now. Best wishes for a Merry Christmas!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Midnight US NAM Run

The NAM model has completed its cycle for the midnight run. Clear trends are showing up, as this model has shifted a bit westward as well. Upper atmosphere dynamics are looking really good and probably do not represent what the surface has on the model run. Still looking much more positive for a decent hit! Oh, this run also buries Cape Cod and Boston!

Next up, the American GFS run, which initializes in about a half hour. I am hoping to see a similar output as it did this afternoon!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Test

Test, Test, test, Test, Test

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Quick update

With most of the models showing this storm off the coast, and effecting Eastern New England, there is still a chance of the area receiving a light snowfall during the day tomorrow. A small consolation, but may make things look nice. There is also still some monitoring that needs to be done due to the fact that the entire premise of the modeled forecast comes down to timing. We are still 36-48 hours away and one piece that is too fast, too slow, stronger, weaker can make a difference. We shall see what the day brings today.

**UPDATE** Just when things look bad, the GFS model has now pushed further west, with a 980mb low 100 miles off Deleware. Arg, palpatations starting **


Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Storm Update (not good for snow lovers)

The mighty Euro model has just completed its run showing a track well off shore, maybe not even affecting coastal areas. This is a serious hit to the snow lovers dream of having snow on Christmas Weekend. Very disappointing...I will continue to follow it for any further updates

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Storm Update

Today should be the day the weather models are able to obtain more concrete data, and bigger data sets. Hopefully, this allows for more cohesion between the models for a solution. Overnight model runs still brought the potential for a significant snow storm to the area. I will have more after the midday runs and the Euro run early afternoon!


Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Quick Update

Model runs today show clear signs that the GFS model is trending
towards the more robust and impressive Euro model. Tonight and
tomorrow runs will be especially important because our storm will be
entering land over California and there will be better data that will
be gathered. Stay tuned!

Oh boy

Well, the noon time weather models are in. We have a possible flinch in the model war. The GFS model i was talking about this morning, has now moved to being a minor event for the area. The EURO model, well, anyone that wants snow, it just spit out a HUGE snowstorm. A storm that, if verified, would wreak havoc on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine, an absolute paralyzing system is being portrayed. This is also something like the 5th consecutive run the EURO model has shown the almost identical projection......yeah, I am getting a little excited! Still looking more and more like a Sunday into Monday event now.

More to come.

Corey Towner towners
weatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Santa Storm Update....

Well, interesting turn of events yesterday on the model runs. There is now a split on the upcoming weekend storm. We have one model, the rather reliable EURO model, depicting a full scale, all out east coast blizzard. It has also been very bullish on its last couple of runs. Then, we have the American GFS model which is showing a totally suppressed storm that exits off the SE coast and out to sea. It has been pretty staunch on its stance as well. The other models fall in between the Euro and GFS.

One thing is for sure, this is no longer a Christmas Eve into Christmas Day storm. The trends on all models is to keep precipitation out of the area until late Christmas Afternoon/Evening at the earliest. In fact, the Euro does not have precipitation starting until early Sunday morning. To me, we want this to be a slower moving storm like the Euro depicts. This gives time for things to phase and setup allowing for a east coast snowstorm. If it is a faster moving storm, then all the pieces may not fall into place, and realistically we could see the storm move off the coast. This exact scenario is becoming the norm on the east coast. We either get the full monty, or we get nothing. The 3-6", 4-8" storms are becoming less and less common and we either get 12"+ or nothing. Truth be told, a nice 3-6" snowfall would be great on Christmas Day, that's all I want.

In any case, where do we go. Well, it is a wait and see game of chicken between the EURO model and the GFS model. Eventually, one of them will flinch and we can get a better understanding of what may occur. For now, keep it in the back of your mind that a snowstorm can occur this weekend. Also, at the same time, prepare yourself for the dissapointment of temperatures in the mid 30's with partly cloudy skies this weekend!

More to come!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

"Santa Storm"

Must give credit to a coworker who coined this phrase........ the overnight models are still showing the threat for the Christmas Day storm. For now, that is all I am focusing on. The minor details can work themselves out over the next few days. I am more concerned with the models, and having them consistently showing a threat. There are a lot of variables that will lead up to this storm, and if one does not pan out, it could throw the storm off.

It will probably be today that you will start to hear the news media begin their hyping of the storm. take it all with a grain of salt, nothing is set in stone now, and we have some ways to go. More to come.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

White Christmas

Weather models still showing a potential for a white Christmas in the
area. There has been some waffling about how it comes together, but
still looks like we stand a decent chance of seeing a White Christmas!
It has been a long time since the area has had a true White Christmas
and it will definitely be something I am looking forward too! More to
come during the week!

I AM DREAMING OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS.....

Ok, time to look forward to see whats on tap for chances of snow this week. There appears to be a clipper poised to move through the area Tues/Wednesday timeframe, but will have very little precipitation as it will dry up as it crosses over the Appalachian Mtns.

And, its also time to start focusing on Christmas!!!! Yes, thats right, models are pointing towards a Christmas Day storm! Something we have not had in this area for a long, long time! In fact, in my 33 years, I can remember the amount of White Christmases I have had on one hand. I am not talking rain that changes to snow, I am talking Bing Crosby White Christmas, from start to finish. The weather models have been pretty bullish on the idea of a Christmas Day storm. This is something like 8 or 9 consecutive model runs that have shown it....a little more consistency than this last storm. Anyways, the potenital is there for a big east coast snowstorm! Stay tuned!

I am officially excited and hope this pans out. I will give up the entire winter to have a foot of snow on Christmas Day!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Storm dead for tomorrow

Storm cancel, models and observations place this storm developing too
far out to sea to affect the area. Colder temperatures to remain in
place. Next storm to watch, 6 days from now as models are suggesting a
potential snow event. It's 6 days out, so for now, it's eye candy.

Weekend Storm on life support

Bad news for snow lovers. A consensus has been made with all the
weather models showing our weekend storm will be a fish storm (out to
sea) and will have no effects on us. Waiting for the night models to
come in and we can officially put this storm 6 feet under.

Discouraging overnight model runs

Wow is all I can say about how all the weather models are handling
this weekends snowstorm. They are all over the place. Even the models
which have been more trustworthy are wild. This, making for a
potentially dangerous situation because it has really gone to a
storm/no storm scenario. There are a couple features that seem to be
playing into their respective outcomes and we should learn more with
today's runs. I am looking for more consensus between the models
before getting amped up. Hopefully today gets us to where we need to
be, but my thinking is we are losing this storm. Hopefully we see some
encouragement today

Snowstorm Chances Increasing

Models are coming into better agreements for a good hit on Sunday for the entire DC-BOS corridor. More to come.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Upcoming weekend

A return to colder temperatures have started today and will las
through the foreseeable future. A couple snow showers today around the
area. Quick note, weather models showing a potential winter storm for
next weekend. Still 7 days out, so no need to get crazy, just wanted
to give everyone the potential heads up. I will be following and
posting during the week.

Corey

Some Light Snow Today

There will be some light snow and snow showers over the area today. With temperatures being so cold, it will not take much for the snow to accumulate on surfaces. We are not looking at significant accumulations, but enough for things to look nice! Be careful on the roads, any accumulation will make slick travel

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner

Welcome Back

Just wanted to let everyone know, I am back and ready for another exciting Winter Season. Just a quick thought.... I am pretty sure this year, in terms of snow, will not match what we did last year. I see this pattern being one of more cold air while its dry, and warm when storms approach, and back to cold after the storm departs. While this does not rule out the chance for big storms, I think we end up with a lot of the snow to mix to rain back to snow scenarios this Winter.

Case in point, this weekend. While it has been cold over the past week, not escaping the 30's, I am anticipating temps getting to the upper 40's and low 50's Sunday when a low pressure approaches the area. Then, when this storm passes it gets Vodka cold for next week...we will barely escape the 20's for highs.

With the storm moving into the area Saturday Night, it may start as a brief period of snow, but will change over to rain for the majority of the storm. This storm will pass to the west of us, known as a "Lakes Cutter" due to the fact it will move towards the Great Lakes. Being on the eastern flank, puts us in the warm sector. What we would like to see is a nice blocking low pressure up around Greenland to keep the cold air dammed in over us, which could have lead to a more prolonged snow or mix event before changing over to rain. Without that blocking low, the cold air over us now simply moves away as the Lakes Cutter pushes warmer air into the area.



Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com
twitter.com/coreytowner