The Wild Week Ahead

Over the next week we will have quite the roller coaster in the weather world. Already this week, we had snow to rain and then ending with a severe thunderstorm warning. We went from single digit temperatures to the mid 50's in the span of a day, back down into the 30's. The look ahead looks just as crazy.

Temperatures are back into the 30's today and that will continue through the rest of the week thanks to a passing cold front. Then, this weekend looks very warm.....and more importantly, dry. Temperatures will be in the upper 50's. This weekend will be a very nice reminder of whats to come in the coming months. The warmth will be short lived though as we will then focus our attention to a rather active stormy period of weather.

You have probably heard the rumors of a big storm next week. The rumors are true, there will be a storm. However, the exact details will be far from ironed out. This will be a very complex setup that will involve a number of moving parts.

First player, we will be watching a clipper that will move through to our north Sunday Night. This will also drag a cold front through the region, bringing an end to our mild weekend. How much cold air filters in and how far the cold front advances will be a driving force on the setup for the following, more potent storm. The cold front will help to establish a trough over the eastern states, just in time for a disturbance to form over the Gulf states. as the disturbance rounds the bottom of the trough, a low pressure center will develop and tap into some Gulf moisture. Where this low forms and where it travels will ultimately determine the size and track of our storm.

Meanwhile, we will also be tracking another disturbance moving across the Great Lakes which will be a reinforcing shot of cold air. So, while our low pressure is strengthening, how far down that cold air disturbance makes it will determine the storm track and ultimately our type and amount of precipitation.  As you can see, this is a very complex and fragile setup. If one of the moving pieces moves too slow or too fast, or doesn't setup as modeled it will have a profound effect on the outcome. Over the next 2-3 days, the models will waffle back and forth. Don't take anything verbatim over the next couple of days. Some model runs you will have pretty snow maps, others you will not. We have to see how this all plays out starting Sunday Night.

So yes, a storm is likely. Where it exactly sets up is a guessing game as of now. As always, I will continue to update. Once we get past the next two days of cooler air, enjoy the weekend! The roller coaster will be in full effect starting Saturday!