Severe Weather Threat Increasing?

This morning, the Storm Prediction Center has extended their moderate risk of severe thunderstorm area a bit further south to include just North of Baltimore through Philly into NY and then ending in CT. This area will be the focal point for severe thunderstorms, large hail, dangerous winds and even tornadoes.


A warm front is moving through now, and this will really help to raise temperatures, humidity and instability in the atmosphere. Later, a strong cold front will move through with the main show. Storms have already started out in NW NJ and are heading SE. There is also another cluster of storms located out in south central PA. Keep an eye to the sky today as and active day is before us. 


Updates as conditions warrant. Follow @townerswxpage on twitter and Towners Weather Page on Facebook

SPC AC 261219
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0719 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012
   
   VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS
   OF THE OH VALLEY ACROSS PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
   OK TO WI...AND EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC...
   
   ...OH VALLEY ACROSS PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE EVENING...
   A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SEWD OVER NW MN THIS
   MORNING...AND THIS WAVE IS PRECEDED BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA
   AND MCV/S THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE OH VALLEY/PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON. 
   THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PERSIST THIS MORNING FROM NRN IL/INDIANA
   ACROSS LOWER MI ALONG AND N OF A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS
   WELL AS FARTHER E INTO PA/SRN NY IN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   WAA.  THE OVERALL TREND IN THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONTINUED
   WEAKENING THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE COLD
   FRONT EXPECTED TO KEEP MOVING SEWD ACROSS IL/INDIANA/SE LOWER MI. 
   THE WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE LOW
   AND DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS PA/SRN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND IN
   THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION.  
   
   STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 2500-4000 J PER KG/ AND WEAKENING
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL ALLOW NEW SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT 18Z ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA/OH AND W/NW PA ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  CONVECTION WILL
   THEN GROW QUICKLY INTO MULTIPLE BANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE
   SPREADING EWD ACROSS PA TOWARD SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND ESEWD
   TOWARD NRN WV/MD...IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME.  CONVECTIVE MODE WILL
   BECOME PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS AFTER
   INITIATION...WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THE MAIN CONCERN.  ADDITIONALLY...
   DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER NEAR THE WARM FRONT
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE NY AND ADJACENT AREAS...WHERE EMBEDDED
   ROTATING STORMS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 
   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MULTIPLE SWATHS GIVEN
   THE STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DCAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND 35-45 KT WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW.  
   
   ...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY TODAY...
   THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
   CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD INTO CENTRAL OK/MO/IL...JUST NW OF I-44. 
   THOUGH THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE
   NW...LINGERING CLOUDS SUGGEST THAT THE GREATER RISK FOR ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT AND
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE.  DEEP-LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
   WILL WEAKEN WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM IL TO OK...SUGGESTING THAT
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT TOWARD IL...AND PULSE-TYPE
   STORMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT INTO OK.  MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL FAVOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS AS THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   ...WI AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
   RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND CLEARING
   OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
   CENTRAL WI BY AFTERNOON.  THE DESTABILIZATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
   PASSAGE OF THE SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACH
   OF THE BAND OF LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
   GIVEN MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
   WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 07/26/2012
   
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