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Philly to Trenton

Special Weather Statement (New Jersey)
Jul 28, at 13:46 EDT
Jul 28, at 14:45 EDT

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...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BUCKS...BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...

MERCER AND PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES...

AT 145 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAMDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR RIVERTON...PALMYRA AROUND 200 PM...RIVERSIDE...DELANCO AROUND 215 PM...EDGEWATER PARK...BURLINGTON AROUND 230 PM...FLORENCE AND TULLYTOWN AROUND 245 PM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

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Camden; Mercer; Northwestern Burlington

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Corey

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued

Until 11pm for a large chunk of the area. Already storms have been popping up, and that looks to continue until a disturbance pushes through later tonight. Keep an eye to the sky through the rest of the day:



WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 535

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

137 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-

019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045-

077-089-091-095-101-290200-

/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.A.0535.120728T1737Z-120729T0200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

535 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING

AREAS

IN DELAWARE THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL DELAWARE

KENT

IN NORTHERN DELAWARE

NEW CASTLE

IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE

SUSSEX

IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND

CAROLINE CECIL KENT

QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT

IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 16 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY

MERCER MONMOUTH

IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

HUNTERDON MIDDLESEX MORRIS

SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN

IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN

CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER

OCEAN SALEM

IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

BERKS LEHIGH NORTHAMPTON

IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

CARBON MONROE

IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

BUCKS CHESTER DELAWARE

MONTGOMERY PHILADELPHIA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...ATLANTIC CITY...

BETHLEHEM...BLAIRSTOWN...CAMDEN...CENTREVILLE...CHERRY HILL...

CHESTERTOWN...DENTON...DEPTFORD...DOVER...DOYLESTOWN...

EAST BRUNSWICK...EASTON...EASTON...EDISON...ELKTON...FLEMINGTON...

FREEHOLD...GEORGETOWN...GLASSBORO...HAMMONTON...JIM THORPE...

MEDIA...MILLVILLE...MOORESTOWN...MORRISTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...

NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWTON...NORRISTOWN...NORTH BRUNSWICK TOWNSHIP...

OCEAN CITY...PENNSVILLE...PERTH AMBOY...PHILADELPHIA...READING...

SAYREVILLE...SOMERSET...STROUDSBURG...TOMS RIVER...TRENTON...

WEST CHESTER AND WILMINGTON.

Another Round Of Storms Today

the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of NJ in a slight risk of thunderstorms today. With that, they have also placed us in a chance for damaging winds and hail. Keep an eye to the sky today once again.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Has now been issued for all of NJ except for the very Southern Counties. Numerous reports of severe weather/tornadoes already occurred or are occurring in W PA.


WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 527

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

400 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

NJC005-007-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-

029-045-077-089-091-095-101-270300-

/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.A.0527.120726T2000Z-120727T0300Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

527 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING

AREAS

IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY

MERCER MONMOUTH

IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

HUNTERDON MIDDLESEX MORRIS

SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN

IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

BURLINGTON CAMDEN GLOUCESTER

OCEAN

IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

BERKS LEHIGH NORTHAMPTON

IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

CARBON MONROE

IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

BUCKS CHESTER DELAWARE

MONTGOMERY PHILADELPHIA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...

BLAIRSTOWN...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...DEPTFORD...DOYLESTOWN...

EAST BRUNSWICK...EASTON...EDISON...FLEMINGTON...FREEHOLD...

GLASSBORO...JIM THORPE...MEDIA...MOORESTOWN...MORRISTOWN...

MOUNT HOLLY...NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWTON...NORRISTOWN...

NORTH BRUNSWICK TOWNSHIP...PERTH AMBOY...PHILADELPHIA...READING...

SAYREVILLE...SOMERSET...STROUDSBURG...TOMS RIVER...

TRENTON AND WEST CHESTER.

Severe Weather Threat Increasing?

This morning, the Storm Prediction Center has extended their moderate risk of severe thunderstorm area a bit further south to include just North of Baltimore through Philly into NY and then ending in CT. This area will be the focal point for severe thunderstorms, large hail, dangerous winds and even tornadoes.


A warm front is moving through now, and this will really help to raise temperatures, humidity and instability in the atmosphere. Later, a strong cold front will move through with the main show. Storms have already started out in NW NJ and are heading SE. There is also another cluster of storms located out in south central PA. Keep an eye to the sky today as and active day is before us. 


Updates as conditions warrant. Follow @townerswxpage on twitter and Towners Weather Page on Facebook

SPC AC 261219
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0719 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012
   
   VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS
   OF THE OH VALLEY ACROSS PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
   OK TO WI...AND EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC...
   
   ...OH VALLEY ACROSS PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE EVENING...
   A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SEWD OVER NW MN THIS
   MORNING...AND THIS WAVE IS PRECEDED BY SEVERAL EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA
   AND MCV/S THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE OH VALLEY/PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON. 
   THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PERSIST THIS MORNING FROM NRN IL/INDIANA
   ACROSS LOWER MI ALONG AND N OF A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS
   WELL AS FARTHER E INTO PA/SRN NY IN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   WAA.  THE OVERALL TREND IN THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONTINUED
   WEAKENING THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE COLD
   FRONT EXPECTED TO KEEP MOVING SEWD ACROSS IL/INDIANA/SE LOWER MI. 
   THE WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE LOW
   AND DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS PA/SRN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND IN
   THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION.  
   
   STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 2500-4000 J PER KG/ AND WEAKENING
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL ALLOW NEW SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT BY ABOUT 18Z ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA/OH AND W/NW PA ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  CONVECTION WILL
   THEN GROW QUICKLY INTO MULTIPLE BANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE
   SPREADING EWD ACROSS PA TOWARD SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND ESEWD
   TOWARD NRN WV/MD...IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME.  CONVECTIVE MODE WILL
   BECOME PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS AFTER
   INITIATION...WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THE MAIN CONCERN.  ADDITIONALLY...
   DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER NEAR THE WARM FRONT
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE NY AND ADJACENT AREAS...WHERE EMBEDDED
   ROTATING STORMS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 
   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MULTIPLE SWATHS GIVEN
   THE STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DCAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND 35-45 KT WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW.  
   
   ...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY TODAY...
   THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
   CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD INTO CENTRAL OK/MO/IL...JUST NW OF I-44. 
   THOUGH THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE
   NW...LINGERING CLOUDS SUGGEST THAT THE GREATER RISK FOR ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT AND
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE.  DEEP-LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
   WILL WEAKEN WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM IL TO OK...SUGGESTING THAT
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT TOWARD IL...AND PULSE-TYPE
   STORMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT INTO OK.  MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL FAVOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS AS THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   ...WI AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
   RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND CLEARING
   OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
   CENTRAL WI BY AFTERNOON.  THE DESTABILIZATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
   PASSAGE OF THE SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACH
   OF THE BAND OF LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
   GIVEN MLCAPE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
   WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 07/26/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1308Z (9:08AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Northeast Severe Weather Setup Tomorrow?

What looks to be a potentially wicked weather day setting up for a large area of the Northeast US tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has a large area listed as a slight risk and another seldom seen moderate risk in the area. Stay tuned to the sky tomorrow.

SPC Day 2 Threat

SPC AC 251730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OH TO PARTS OF THE
   NORTHEAST...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES/MID-MS VALLEY NEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   
   ...POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT/DERECHO ON THU
   AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE
   SEWD AND REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY FRI...WITH A
   MODERATELY FAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME EXISTING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
   NERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NEWD IN THE
   NORTHEAST AND SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
   LAKES. A SERIES OF WEAK CYCLONES SHOULD BE PREVALENT ALONG THIS
   BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL INTERSECT A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD
   FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS. IN THE WEST...MID-LEVEL
   RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
   
   ...MID-MS/OH VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO
   NUMEROUS ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MIDWEST TO
   THE NORTHEAST. AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES...SUPPORTED BY AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND ROBUST
   LOW-LEVEL WAA ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD RETARD THE NERN ADVANCEMENT OF
   THE WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES BREED
   UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY ANCHOR.
   
   AN EXPANSIVE UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY 90S/60S SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
   BUOYANCY THU AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG. A LARGE SWATH
   OF 30-50 KT 700-500 MB WLYS WILL OVERLAP THIS INSTABILITY...AND WITH
   WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMBINING WITH FRONTAL
   CONVERGENCE...THIS SETUP WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
   FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
   PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE
   GROWTH INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS /POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AND
   SIGNIFICANT/ WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO RISK SHOULD DEVELOP
   ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH AND STRONGEST
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH PINPOINTING THIS
   CORRIDOR IS DIFFICULT GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF PRECEDING OVERNIGHT
   CONVECTION...IT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF NY INTO SRN NEW
   ENGLAND. SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DISCRETE
   CONVECTION MAY FORM WITHIN A PERSISTING WAA REGIME THU AFTERNOON.
   
   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
   DCVA DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MN
   SHOULD FOSTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS THU AFTERNOON. THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGE
   THAT WILL ACT MORE AS A DRYLINE CROSSING THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
   COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY/SHEAR SHOULD BE MODEST...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR
   ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ...NRN ROCKIES...
   A BELT OF CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN N OF THE BUILDING
   RIDGE IN THE WEST. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...ISOLATED
   TSTMS SHOULD FORM HIGHER TERRAIN. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
   EXIST FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/25/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 2137Z (5:37PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME