Tornado Watch May Be Extended Further North

The latest Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center leads me to believe that a tornado watch may soon be extended north into Central NJ, around Trenton. This would also include the Philadelphia area. SPC is hedging their bets that the warm front currently located south of the area moves north. We shall see:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...SRN NJ...DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 012025Z - 012130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SERN PA...DE...AND SRN
NJ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS DE
INTO SERN PA AND SRN NJ. THIS NWD SHIFT WILL ALLOW ONGOING
SUPERCELL ACTIVITY UPSTREAM OVER MD TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS
HIGHER THETA-E AIR REPLACES COOLER ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUGGESTS TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD.

..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/01/2012


ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...

LAT...LON 40627561 39667418 38617424 38517560 39767598 40457635
40627561