New years

There is some potential for a very minor event tomorrow morning with a chance of some light snow. I am not to bullish on it, but dont be surprised to see some snow flying in the morning hours tomorrow. Up to a dusting is possible. New Years eve and day look to be wet with some rain showers and temperatures in the low 40's. After this storm passes, looks cold and dry for the next week.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

New Years and beyond

There is some chatter regarding a potential storm around the New Year. There will be a storm, but nothing too special. We have a lot of different solutions on the table, and the models are all over the place. For me, the setup in the atmosphere leaves a lot to be desired. I am not looking for a big storm as of now, but it does look like we see some snow. Starting Thursday am, looks like some snow and then the dreaded transition to a mix and then rain. How much snow will be depended upon the amount of cold air available and how long it takes to retreat. More to come, but I am not looking for anything too much, more of a nuisance event.

The good news, if you like cold, is after the storm passes, it gets cold....for a while

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Some other pics from the past snowstorm

For your viewing enjoyment:








Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Upcoming

Well, after the past snowstorm, I have been in a snow hangover. No fear though, I am back and looking forward to stormy times ahead! First, Christmas Day is looking wet. However, the early stages of the rain there may be a mixed precipitation period. Precipitation starts Christmas morning, and then by afternoon it should all be rain for the afternoon, evening and night. Once the storm pushes out, we are back to highs in the 30's, so beware of the black ice!

After this, the next major threat looks to be around New Years. Weather models have been consistently showing another noreaster around this time period. Being pretty far out, I will continue to monitor it and keep you posted! Imagine two noreasters in two weeks, SWEET!

Best wishes for a great holiday season and a happy, healthy new year!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Recent Storm

A picture from space from the past snowstorm:




Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Heavy Snow

Extremely heavy snow with some embedded thundersnow possible. There are several bands coming in off the Atlantic Ocean moving east to west over Ocean, Monmouth into Mercer and Burlington. These bands will continue for the next couple of hours. snowfall rates could approach 2"/hr.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

WSW

Winter Storm Warning has been updated by the National Weather Service, changing the previous 12-18" to 14-21".

As I have been saying, heavy heavy bands will be working through this afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1-3"/hr can be expected. Thundersnow has also been reported in south jersey and bucks county.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Thundersnow Reported

In Camden and Glucester Counties NJ and Bucks county PA. A very heavy band of snow capable of dropping snow 1"-11/2" per hour is moving into Burlington County heading north and expanding westward. Winds have been increasing as well. The main low pressure is still on the coast of VA and is crawling, almost stalled out.

Burlington Twp- 6" so far and 22 degrees

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Storm really developing

While the snow may have let up, or stopped al together, please don't think this is going to be a reflection on the storm. It is going under serious intensification as we speak and snow will really start falling heavily this afternoon. After all, this was not suuposed to start until mid morning anyways, so this is all "bonus" snow
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Quick update

The snow is having a very tough time moving further north than central jersey due to some extremely dry air. This will saturate and begin fallinf over the next few hours. Meanwhile areas to the south are getting some moderate snows. probably around 2" in Burlington.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Snow has begun

Snow has begun falling in the central and southern part of the state, back down through Deleware and into DC. The snow is creeping ever so slowly north. It is having problems saturating the extremely dry air in place over the northern part of the state. Snow will continue overspreading the area and will become heavy at times towards noon. About 1.5" has already fallen in Burlington, NJ and more is definitely coming!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

HERE WE GO!!!

I am writing this entry just getting back from a great NJ Devils win! I have been following some of the discussions, forecasts and model runs from my phone from the game.....yes, i love snow that much. What I can tell you is this will be a Major East Coast storm, and may be remembered with the best of them. This will borderline a HISTORIC STORM!!!!

What I am gathering from playing catchup is, we are looking at snow, and lots of it. I have even seen that thundersnow is a very good possibility around the philly, south and central jersey regions! This is a VERY rare event and takes place under highly convective bands that will set up over the area. This is going to be a major storm from Richmond, VA through Boston. A classic I95 Noreaster!! The best part, there is very little chance of any sleet or freezing rain mixing in, even at the coast!

I am almost at a loss of words! With that, here are some totals as I see it now: Originally, i felt safe with a 6-12" forecast.....it APPEARS THIS WILL BE TOO LITTLE!!!

Trenton- 12-16" (more where convective banding sets up)
Philadelphia- 14-18" (more where convective banding sets up)
DC- 14-18" (more where convective banding sets up)
Easton, PA 8-12"
NYC 10-14" (more where convective banding sets up)

These amounts will be revisited in the am. As I am writing this, snow has begun falling in the mid atlantic region, all the way up to southern jersey.

I am looking for snow to start around 5am in central jersey. Snow will become heavy at times during the day Saturday and will become VERY heavy from the period of 7pm-11pm. Snow will tper off in the early Sunday morning time frame 3-6am. The snow will start and begin accumulating rapidly.

More updates to come!


Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Significant Storm Likely

Winter storm warnings and watches are in effect for the area. Models have waffled this morning, but the noon time runs have brought more consistency. Storm is currently moving through the southeast US and is poised to make it to the coast. From here, models are showing the low pressure moving north from Cape Hatteras NC and off the SNJ/Del coast. It will then move ENE out to sea. What to expect: as of now, snow starts in the morning hours of Saturday. Snow becomes heavy at time Sat afternnon through the evening. It will continue to snow overnight and tapper off Sunday morning. As of now, 6-12" looks plausable. The other part of the storm will be sever beach erosion. The coast has been battered all ready this year, and this will be another hit. Expect near blizzard conditions and even a possibility of thundersnow. These features will be dependent on the exact position and strength of the low. More to come!
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Evening Model Run-NAM

Absolutely crushes the area from Northern Va through NYC with all snow. WOW!! More to come
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WOW

As you may have seen, Winter Storm Watches have been posted for a large area, including Central NJ for late Friday Night thru Saturday Night. There is potential for a significant storm (6"+). Midday models all have a generally same track with varying percipitation amounts. I believe that we may see a substantial storm. More updates tonight! It could be a big one.
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GET THE SNOW SHOVELS READY!

There is growing confidence of our first substantial snowstorm of the year. Models have trended towards a significant winter weather event for the Middle Atlantic-Northeast this coming weekend. I will be tracking this storm over the next couple days and bring you the latest. Time frame looks from Saturday Night through Sunday Night. Stay tuned!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Whats in store?

So, it was pretty warm these past two days. Last night, a cold front moved through, and this will keep temperatures below normal for the next week. High temperatures will average in the upper 30's to low 40's. Looking at upcoming storm potential, an intriguing storm will take shape this weekend, looking like Sunday possibly into Monday. We have a low pressure looking to move up the coast. How far this tracks out to sea will be the question. Originally this was a fish storm in the Atlantic, but recent models have shown this storm moving closer to the coast.

In other modeled storms, showing up is a Christmas Eve to Christmas day noreaster....could it be? A white Christmas? I gotta tell you, it has been a very long time since that has happened. 2002 was the last time I can remember seeing snow on Christmas, but that was after 12 hours of heavy rain...would be very nice to get an all snow event on Christmas Day! We shall see, stay tuned. It is a while away, and we will see how the upcoming models play it.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

This Date In Weather History December 16

2000 - An F4 tornado hits communities near Tuscaloosa, AL, killing 11 people and injuring 125 others. It was the strongest December tornado in Alabama since 1950.(www.weatherforyou.com)

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

This Date In Weather History December 15

1945 - A record December snowstorm buried Buffalo, NY, under 36.6 inches of snow, with unofficial totals south of the city ranging up to 70 inches. Travel was brought to a halt by the storm. (14th-17th) (The Weather Channel)(www.weatherforyou.com)

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

This Date In Weather History December 14

1924 - The temperature at Helena, MT, plunged 79 degrees in 24 hours, and 88 degrees in 34 hours. The mercury plummeted from 63 above to 25 below zero. At Fairfield MT the temperature plunged 84 degrees in just 12 hours, from 63 at Noon to 21 below zero at midnight. (David Ludlum)(www.weatherforyou.com)

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

This Date In Weather History December 13

1962 - A severe Florida freeze occurred. Morning lows reached 35 degrees at Miami, 18 degrees at Tampa, and 12 degrees at Jacksonville. It was the coldest December weather of the 20th century and caused millions of dollars damage to crops and foliage. In Georgia, the morning low of 9 degrees below zero at Blairsville established a state record for the month of December. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)(www.weatherforyou.com)

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

This Date In Weather History December 12

1960 - The first of three Middle Atlantic snowstorms produced a foot of snow at Baltimore MD. A pre-winter blizzard struck the northeastern U.S. producing wind gusts as high as 51 mph, along with 16 inches of snow at Nantucket MA, and 20 inches at Newark NJ. (David Ludlum)(www.weatherforyou.com)

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

This Date In Weather History December 11

932 - Very cold weather prevailed along the West Coast. San Francisco received 0.8 inch of snow, and at the airport the temperature dipped to 20 degrees. At Sacramento CA, the mercury dipped to 17 degrees to establish an all-time record low for that location. Morning lows were below freezing from the 9th to the 15th at Sacramento, and the high on the 11th was just 34 degrees. The cold wave dealt severe damage to truck crops and orange groves in the Sacramento Valley. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)(www.weatherforyou.com)

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Lots 'O Rain, then very cold

There will be some rain moving in tonight with an associated cold front and low pressure system. The actual low pressure will travel through the Great Lakes, keeping us on the warm side of the storm. What this means is rain, and lots of it tonight and tomorrow. Rain amounts will range from 1-2 inches. Areas in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos will see some snow in the beginning 1-2" and 3-5" respectively.
After the cold front moves through, temps drop like a rock and highs for the remainder of the week will not get out of the 30's. Temps tomorrow reach the mid 50's.

Looking forward to the cold!
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Slop for tomorrow night

Tomorrow Night, the area will be blanketed with some snow, which will quickly transition over to sleet and freezing rain and then over to all rain towards morning. The rain will be around all day and amount to upwards of an inch. The big change will be the COLD air behind it. Don't expect highs to get out of the 30s after Wednesday. There is a chance of an approaching storm this weekend. More to come with that!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

This Date In Weather History December 7

1740 - In early December two weeks of mild and rainy weather culminated in the worst flood in fifty years in the Lower Connecticut River Valley. The Merrimack River swelled to its highest level, and in Maine the raging waters swept away mills, carried off bridges, and ruined highways. (David Ludlum)(www.weatherforyou.com)

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Quick Update

Most places have transitioned over to snow. Models are showing a nice band of snow will be over us for the next 3 hours....1-3" still looks good. Have fun and enjoy another December 5th snow! Precipitation will continue through about 9 or 10 tonight.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

A couple of pics around the area

From Meghan around Dulles Airport:


From Steve in Williamsport:


Snowing in Catonsville, MD and snow has now started to mix in at my house in Burlington, NJ. We should start to see the snow mix in, and transition back and forth between rain and snow before finally going to all snow


Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Snow Getting Closer

Reports of snow falling in Northern Virginia, Dulles Airport, Williamsport, PA (with accumulation), started in York, PA, mixing around Baltimore and Elkton, MD. Its getting closer. Again, the magic number seems to be 37 degrees, when we hit that, we should see a transition to snow. My temperature at my house has dropped from 42.3 to 41.5 in the last 30 minutes, all good signs!!

***EDIT*** Snow now also reporting mixing in with sleet in Newark, DE and Deleware County PA has turned over to snow



Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Uh Oh

woke up this morning to find temperatures at 42 degrees. Rain has started, and the storm is moving fast. Bad combinations all the way around, dont expect too much in the way of accumulations. These temperatures are too much to overcome. Accumulations can still be expected in the NE PA areas back through Harrisburg and Gettysburg areas. Light Snow has been reported in some of these areas.

***EDIT*** The faster we can get down to 37 degrees, the better. Reports out of a number of areas is that once they hit 37 degrees, it transitioned to snow....so, lets get down to 37!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

This Date In Weather History December 5

1886 - A big snowstorm in the southeastern U.S. produced 11 inches at Montgomery AL, 18.5 inches at Rome GA, and 22.5 inches at Knoxville TN. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)(www.weatherforyou.com)

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Big Changes!

Wow, what a turn of events. Over the past couple of days, I have discussed the NAM model showing a good hit for the area. It was an extreme outlier, that is, up until noon time today. A majority of the major models have now shifted into the NAM models camp and are showing a nice storm for early December! Now, there will be precipitation, but the big question is, how cold does it get and when do we transition to snow. Rain starts in the morning with temperatures in the upper 30's. At some point during the early afternoon-evening time frame, we should transition to snow. The earlier this happens, the more accumulation we will have.

December 5th has been a magic date this decade. If we recieve measurable snow, it will be the 6th time this decade it has snowed on December 5th!

If this was not enough good info, there is another storm lined up for next week! That will be a pattern changer and should allow for a change to cold weather and a stormy period! Looks like things are going to get really interesting over the next couple weeks! Take it one day at a time, tomorrow should be fun

the National Weather Service will probably be hoisting Advisories and/or warnings for parts of the areas.

I will try and pinpoint some amounts later on, preliminary amounts:

PHL-TTN Central Jersey 1-3"
Coastal NJ 1"
N NJ/NYC 2-4"
CT (Meriden Area...yeah, love you guys!) 2-5"
NE Maryland (There you go Tank!) 1-2"
Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

This Date In Weather History December 3

1786 - The first of two great early December storms began. The storm produced 18 inches of snow at Morristown NJ, and twenty inches of snow at New Haven CT. It also resulted in high tides at Nantucket which did great damage. (David Ludlum)(www.weatherforyou.com)

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Uh Oh!

A nice change on todays 12z model runs in regards to tomorrow! May have to dust off those snow boots! Up until this morning, the NAM model was the only model showing a decent early season event here in Central Jersey. Well, as of 12z, it now has company from the GFS model. The Euro model made a small shift last night, but its 12z run will be huge if that too coincides with the other model runs. I will update when that model run comes out. There will still be rain, but there may me measurable snow!
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Quick Update

Cold front has pushed through today. With that, a line of storms with gusty winds passed over parts of the area today. Below is a picture from Easton, PA showing a large tree which was most likely blown over by one of the strong wind gusts.

A quick update for Saturday. Do not get your hopes up with snow on Saturday. We will most likely start with some rain during the day, and it may mix with or change to snow, but there should be no accumulation. precipitation moves in during the afternoon and continues through the evening before tapering off over night. Areas which start out as snow, may see accumulations up to an inch. Saturday will be the coldest daytime highs we have had yet. Highs will be in the upper 30's.



Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

This Date In Weather History December 3

1989 - Heavy snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in northern New England. Snowfall totals in Maine ranged up to 31 inches, at Limestone. Presque Isle ME reported a record 30 inches of snow in 24 hours, along with wind gusts to 46 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)(www.weatherforyou.com)

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Quick Update

A quick update about tonight and this weekend. Tonight, rain has moved in and will continue until tomorrow morning. The winds will also kick up and be quite gusty at times. There is even a chance of some thunder or lightening as the low pressure moves closer. Rain moves out tomorrow am.

On to Saturday. Most models, the GFS and European show a low pressure development off the NC coast which moves away from the coast leaving us with some sprinkles/flurries. What's interesting is one of the medium range models, the NAM (which only goes out 84 hours) has shown a developing low pressure developing in the GOM and moving along the east coast. This brings more precipitation to the area, leaving the only question to temperatures. As depicted, they would be marginal for snow. Now, take this model with a grain of salt, the "wheel house" of this model is under 48 hours, and since the event is greater than that, it tends to do some wacky things. Nonetheless, I will continue to follow it and see how it does in the upcoming model runs.

I have also stated in the past to keep a reminder that nothing will be set in stone and some waffling will take place. I would wait until this current system moves out to allow the models to get a better grasp on the event this weekend. Updates as needed! I am off to a Devils game!
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Wet Thursday, Flakes Saturday?

A significant low pressure located in the gulf states will spread NE today and reach our area tonight. This low pressure will bring significant rain, wind and possible thunderstorms. The rain will push out tomorrow leading to cooler temperatures. After tomorrow, our focus moves towards Saturday. Models were showing another low pressure moving from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday. Models yesterday were showing a track more conducive to snow in Jersey, but have since moved to a track more off the coast, making snow less conducive. The is fairly good agreement on this track as of now, so I would look for some rain showers and possible snow showers during the day Saturday and snow showers Saturday Night. Thats how it is looking now, and I will continue to monitor the situation.

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

This Date In Weather History December 2

1925 - A late season hurricane caused extensive damage across the Florida peninsula, then moved off the Georgia coast crossing Cape Hatteras as a tropical storm. The storm produced whole gales along the Middle Atlantic and Southern New England coast. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Block Island RI, and reached 64 mph at Atlantic City NJ. (David Ludlum)(www.weatherforyou.com)

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

18z GFS model run 12/1/09

The latest run of the GFS model is in. The trend of the surface low pressure has moved a bit further west, which is good for us. The issue will be temperatures. The 00z model run will be in around 11pm and I will post again. The 00z model run is very important because the disturbance will be on land on the west coast. Models tend to do better when they arrive on the land. We shall see what happens, more to come.

On a different note, a big cold front will be pushing through tomorrow night associated with a low pressure that will be cutting to the great lakes (a lakes cutter). This will put us on the eastern side of the storm, or the warm side. What we can expect with this is temperatures to rise near 60 degrees tomorrow night. With the passage of the cold front, gusty winds and even a thunderstorm cannot be rules out. The system tomorrow night will bring around an inch of rain. When the front passes through, the temperatures should fall into the 50s and 40s.

So, keep posted for the upcoming model runs. tonights 00z run and tomorrows 12z run will be key in the developing system for Saturday. More to come as well about the possible rain, wind and tstorm activity tomorrow.



Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

12z GFS Rolling Out

the 12z GFS model is rolling out....this will be a tell tale sign if it continues to show a storm...more to come

1110 UPDATE: 12z GFS has moved further to the east off the coast. Still leaves some snow showers/flurries in the area.



This will flip flop a bunch of times up until "game time" I had pointed to the fact that this will be the case until the cold front and associated low pressure moves through Wednesday Night and Thursday, than we can hammer out some details.

More to come!

Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

Snow Threat 12/5

Well, after digesting last nights model runs, it may be time to start taking a serious look at the snow threat for Saturday. Below is a depiction from one model, the GFS model, of the projected outcome (click on picture to see NJ). In no way do I think we will get a foot of snow, but this was one projection. this is also only one model, so take that with a grain of salt. The other models do show a low pressure off the coast, but much further to the east, grazing the coastline. With that, there are still a number of other variables that need to be looked at. #1, and most important, we need to monitor the cold front and associated low pressure that will be moving through Thursday. Depending on speed, strength and movement of that system will have a lot to be said about the final outcome this Saturday. Anyways, I will be watching it, and it is a threat.

Historically, December 5th has also been a good day for snow in the 2000's. We have gotten snow on this date approx 75% of this decade!




Corey Towner
townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/
twitter.com/coreytowner

This Date In Weather History Decemeber 1

1985 - A storm produced more than six inches of snow from the Northern and Central Plains to parts of Michigan, with 36.4 inches reported at Marquette MI. Many roads were blocked by snow. A family was stranded for 25 hours south of Colome SD. Drifts twelve feet high were reported in north central Nebraska. (The Weather Channel)(www.weatherforyou.com)

Corey Towner
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twitter.com/coreytowner