Monday Through Wednesday

Back to more normal temperatures and tracking down two storm threats. For today, a low pressure system is gathering off the Carolina coast. This storm will slide north just off the Jersey Coast, keeping the precipitation confined to the Atlantic Ocean. This will be a Long Island and New England storm. As that pushes north and east, Tuesday a second disturbance will move from the Great lakes and redevelop off the eastern seaboard. This storm looks to keep a threat of a long duration of light to moderate snow over the area. Tough to pin point exactly where he highest amounts will be as we will be dependent upon where the heaviest band of moderate precipitation sets up. As of now, the favored areas on models have been SE PA and Southern to Central NJ. Keep in mind as well, there is some model agreement on placement of this between the 6z NAM model and GFS, while the EURO has about 1-2" back towards the area. Even the placement agreement between the NAM and GFS, they still differ on amounts, with the GFS showing more. As of now, keep in mind that for Tuesday into Wednesday we will more than likely have some light snow flying for much of the time, amounts to be determined. More to come.

***WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED***

Winter Weather Advisory (New Jersey)
Feb 04, at 15:27 PM EST
Feb 05, at 10:00 AM EST

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A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

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...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY, EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND NORTHERN DELAWARE. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON UNPAVED SURFACES. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN, BUT AS TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. * IMPACTS...SNOW WILL IMPACT THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR AND COULD CAUSE SLICK SPOTS, MAINLY ON SECONDARY ROADWAYS AS WELL AS ON SIDEWALKS. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO IN THE MID 30S.

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Camden; Gloucester; Hunterdon; Mercer; Middlesex; Morris; Northwestern Burlington; Salem; Somerset

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February 5 2016 Surprise Event

The heavy rains moved through the region yesterday, and the associated cold front has pushed through today. As this was going on yesterday, models began keying in on another disturbance that will ride up along the cold front that will be situated off the East Coast. Initially, this was poised to be an event that would scrape the coastal areas and maybe bring some snow showers further inland. In successive model runs, the trend has spread the precipitation field back to the west and beefed up the amount of precipitation. As of now, it looks like we could have a nice surprise waiting for our Friday morning commute This will not be a long lasting event. In fact, it will probably end during the late morning, and the sun may be out by the afternoon. 

What we are looking at: temperatures have been warm. The will begin dropping steadily down tonight into the upper 30's as rain pushes in during the late evening hours. Temperatures will also continue to fall and the rain will transition over to snow during the very early morning hours and last through the morning rush. As mentioned, the warm temperatures will more than likely keep accumulations to grassy surfaces and colder areas. If we can get some more intense snowfall rates, maybe then we will have some accumulations on the streets. In any case, snow will fall, but more than likely this will just be a pretty scenery event. For the most part for western areas, a general coating to 2" may fall....coastal areas may get a little more depending on when they changeover. 

There have been a number of significant developments with this event over the past 24 hours, so maybe some more surprises are coming, but this is my latest thinking. Once this passes, we will focus our attention on some much colder air next week, with a couple chances at some snow. More to come.