Sandy Update Evening 10/24/2012

Well, Sandy has passed through Jamaica and is now poised to hit Cuba. Sandy has intensified and now has winds up to 85 mph. In the latest Hurricane Hunter recon flights into the storm, they have measured winds up to 90 mph. Once 94 mph sustained winds are found, Sandy will become a Category 2 Hurricane. Very impressive to say the least because a day ago, Sandy was not supposed to become a hurricane until tonight, hence a borderline cat 2 storm. Very impressive to say the least.

Halloween / Sandy Update Midday 10/24/2012

Oh boy, lots of news now.

First things first, Sandy is now a hurricane. Sandy is packing 80mph winds and is currently making landfall in Jamaica. She will move up and through Cuba tonight and then take aim at the Bahamas Thursday Night into Friday. From there is where the real fun will begin. Here is the projected track as of 11am today:

Now, on this page, you can already see that this track is further west then it has been over the past couple days. I have already talked about the impulse in the area of Alaska that will cause the ridging out west (which creates the trough in the east). The trough in the east will allow the storm to ride along it, and eventually phase in with the arctic jet. When this phase occurs, this will be the driving force to "pulling" the storm westward to the coast. 

The Euro model has been deadly consistent over the past three days (6 model runs) of showing very consistent outcomes. it has been showing a monster hit in the area (all bringing a bad scenario to those of us in Jersey.) last nights run was probably the worst run Jersey could potentially experience with this storm.) It brought Sandy up the east coast, effecting the major cities and then when the phase took place, Sandy made an immediate left turn into Jersey. Here is the model run showing the scenario:

Monday Early Morning:

Tuesday Early Morning: (making left into Jersey)

And finally, Wednesday morning, over Philly:

no need to explain the outcome here, it would be devastating. strong winds, massive amounts of rain, widespread power outages etc etc. The Euro has been showing an East Coast impact for like I said, 3 straight days (6 model runs). Its on to something. 

I have talked a lot about the GFS model and how 4 days ago, it showed a similar hit, only to take it out to sea and bother Bermuda. Over the past three days, it has taken small steps back towards the Euro solution. It has tried to show what would happen if Sandy was not able to phase, and the ridge out west was not as strong, and a progressive pattern would just let the storm escape out to sea. The scary part is, over the past couple days, the model has begun to recognize all the players on the field. This is why a move towards the EURO solution is troublesome because now it really enforces the idea this can happen. So, todays midday run of the GFS model has brought the storm back to effecting the east coast, and actually makes landfall in Maine. So, we can see it is recognizing the players, and adjusting accordingly. I believe it will continue to do this and move towards the EURO. 

When a model runs, it is made up of a number of subsets that take into account a number of different variables. These ensemble runs make up the operational run. the operational run is kind of a medium of all the ensemble members of the model. Well, whats interesting is, over the past few days, we had a large majority of the ensemble members taking the track well off shore and out to sea. Over the past few days, many of the ensemble members have began to switch over to a more coastal track. Each run, the more members went further west to where we are now. Even as this operational run of the GFS took Sandy to Maine, many of the ensemble members are continuing to show a more westward track. For this reason, I am not going to be shocked to again think that this will move even further west.

So, bottom line, models are really starting to show the real potential here with a devastating storm that is taking aim on the east coast. There will be plenty more updates to come. Please continue to monitor the National Weather Service for further updates. i will also be passing all those along and then some on both my twitter (@townerswxpage) and on my facebook page (Towners Weather PAGE). Please share with friends and let them know. I try and keep updates throughout the day and let you know things as soon as I do. 

Halloween / Sandy Update

Ok, so some recap here for the morning. We have Tropical Storm Sandy south of Jamaica. Sandy is currently packing 45 mph sustained winds.  Sandy is probed to become a Hurricane Wednesday Night into Thursday, before making landfall in Jamaica. Sandy is entering into very favorable conditions for strengthening. here is the morning update from the National Hurricane Center:

So, from here, Sandy will move across Jamaica, Cuba and then through the Bahamas. From there is when we will really have to start watching what happens. I explained the first part of the puzzle yesterday was solved when Sandy was born. We will now have to monitor weather modeling. Some of the things I will be looking at is the Gulf of Alaska. Here is a key feature that will determine, ultimately, if Sandy will be able to head up the coast or if she moves off shore. If we can get this disturbance to be on the stronger side, it will create a ridge in the west, which means a trough in the east which will allow Sandy to move up the coast and phase with the Arctic jet. If the disturbance in the GOA is weaker, it will keep the ridge more progressive and flat, essentially allowing Sandy to move off shore and threaten Bermuda. 

From there, assuming we can get a stronger impulse in the GOA, we will then have to take a look at blocking downstream which would prevent Sandy from escaping East and slow her down. From there, we would then have to see how she would interact with the Arctic and Polar jets as far as a phase could go. In any case, its going to be a wild ride. Euro model still showing a monster, indications of the GFS model maybe wavering a bit westward and the Canadian Model still showing a bomb. FYI too, just so you know what kind of system we are dealing with, the Euro model also drops 36" of SNOW in Western PA!!!! Not saying that is going to happen, but this has the potential to be a very dynamic and powerful storm. Here is the snow graphic from last nights' Euro model: