Halloween Update Midday 10/22/2012

The first part of the equation has been solved, we now have Tropical Depression 18. TD 18 is located south of Jamaica and will slowly move to the north.  This is poised to become a Tropical Storm, and would take on the name Sandy. This is the first of many pieces of a puzzle to potentially come together to bring us a rather potent storm.

TD 18 graphic:

Halloween Update

I started talking about a potential storm for next week last night. The evening run of the GFS was the first to show a further east solution, which it still has, but the EURO model has remained fairly consistent with its track. Here is the morning update. Euro still shows a major storm, and the GFS is out to sea.

Here is the midnight run of the EURO at 192hrs:

and 216 hrs:

one thing about this run, it shows a large storm, and really brings down some cold air all the way down to the Gulf States.

The GFS model, depicted here at 144 hrs has the storm, but then moves it East and out to sea:

more to come.

Trick Or Treat

Well, its a little early, but we have a storm to track. This morning, some weather models were hinting at a significant east coast storm towards the end of the month. Then, the midday runs had all the major models jumping on board, and surprisingly a strong agreement in track up to about 120 hours. The beginnings of this is a disturbance now, south of Jamaica. This storm has a high likelihood of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next couple days (tropical storm / hurricane). As this moves north, it is going to interact with the subtropical jet stream arctic jet and the polar jet streams setting up the potential for a significant to severe weather situation along the east coast ( a perfect storm? triple phaser?). Like i said, all models had some semblance of this at the midday run.

So, what does this all mean....well, obviously, the potential is there for a significant storm. We are days away and for now, we need to watch this and see how things unfold. The Euro model has this coming in around the 29th, while the GFS model has this around Halloween. This would take a immense amount of variables to come together to produce this. Anyways, keep your guard up, pay attention and follow me on facebook (Towners Weather Page) and twitter (@townerswxpage).

Here are variables and model runs:

Disturbance (number 1):

GFS Midday Run: 204 hours

EURO Model Run 180 hours

And for good measure, a snow map out to 384 hours on the GFS (includes this storm)

 More to come....