With the spread in the models, it will be nowcast time and we will have to see how this radar develops as the day moves on and into the evening:
Monday, January 9, 2012
Monday Update
Euro model last night really dried the system out for tonight. It has gone from the furthest north with the system, to barely having one at all. The GFS model is still showing a mainly Southern NJ hit, but there would still be some snow showers / light snow in the Central NJ area. The NAM model still doesnt not even have anything hitting NJ.
Sunday, January 8, 2012
Snow Threat Increasing
For tomorrow night. Earlier, the Euro model was showing a light accumulating snow for Southern and Central NJ. The Euro has lead the way as the GFS model has also begun to show snow for the Jersey area as well. Now, the evening run of the NAM model brings the snow further north, but still just reaching southern areas. Looks generally like a light snow event for the area....more to come tonight with the evening model runs!
Upcoming Week
With another very mild weekend coming to a close, time to look forward! This week brings us a couple chances at storms. Monday Night, a disturbance will move just to our south. The Euro model actually is the furthest north with it, bringing snow into the area. The GFS and NAM models keep it to the south, not even grazing us. I will keep an eye on this
Towards the end of the week, we will have a coastal storm develop which will be a big rain maker. This storm will be associated with another cold front moving through, mimicking the past cold front we had this past week. This front will once again usher in cold air, and highs will be in the lower 30's.
The big question is, what happens towards the end of the week. Is this cold air going to be transitional or is it going to stick around. The pattern we have been in suggests it will be transitional....but there is also an argument to be made that this may be part of a transition to actually letting winter begin! That question will be answered towards the end of the week. Both the GFS and Euro have a sustained period of at least normal temperatures, if not slightly below temperatures for the remaining of the guidance, so this would lend credence to the start of winter after this rain maker on Thursday / Friday.
More to come!
Towards the end of the week, we will have a coastal storm develop which will be a big rain maker. This storm will be associated with another cold front moving through, mimicking the past cold front we had this past week. This front will once again usher in cold air, and highs will be in the lower 30's.
The big question is, what happens towards the end of the week. Is this cold air going to be transitional or is it going to stick around. The pattern we have been in suggests it will be transitional....but there is also an argument to be made that this may be part of a transition to actually letting winter begin! That question will be answered towards the end of the week. Both the GFS and Euro have a sustained period of at least normal temperatures, if not slightly below temperatures for the remaining of the guidance, so this would lend credence to the start of winter after this rain maker on Thursday / Friday.
More to come!
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