Wednesday Storm 11/24/2014 Midday Update

All major models are showing an impact from an approaching storm on Wednesday just in time for one of the busiest travel days in the US. Travel will be impacted throughout the DC-BOS corridor in one way or another. With highs reaching into the 60's today, a winter storm will be the last thing people will be thinking about.

Rain has pushed through the area today and in its wake, we will have very mild and windy conditions. A cold front will push through on Tuesday setting the stage for a storm on Wednesday. While the details are still far from being concluded, it is fairly certain that travel in and around the I95 corridor will be impacted during the day and evening on Wednesday.

First thing is first......here is the latest from the NWS:

Winter Storm Watches issued for NW NJ (Blue Areas)

And, then we have the latest thinking from the NWS as far as accumulations:

I think areas in Eastern PA, back through Lancaster, Reading, Poconos and into NW will be all snow. I would not be surprised to see amounts 6-10" in those areas.......6 further south (Lancaster and 10 further north into NW Jersey). Areas further to the south, E PA, through NW Mercer Counties up through Hunterdon County, I think a start as some frozen mix over to snow with amounts around 3-6"/4-8". Areas in Philly- C NJ I am thinking start out as rain/frozen mix, over to a mix and then over to snow as the day progresses. Total snowfall here 1-3"/2-4" type event.

Thats my thinking as of now, as always, I will be updating frequently.

Roller Coaster Ride Over The Next Week

I have a couple minutes and wanted to relay some info for the next week, through Thanksgiving.

We have just been through some pretty good cold weather. This is a good primer for the upcoming winter. While the cold air will be moving out of the region beginning tomorrow, the week ahead looks to be filled with a number of changes, some good, some bad....depending on your point of view.

Cold air moves out beginning tomorrow. We go to seasonable temperatures on Sunday and then above average for Monday. We could actually be looking at 65-70 degrees for the highs on Monday (which would be a great day to take care of hanging the Christmas lights).

On  Tuesday, another cold front will be approaching the area and will bring the return to colder temperatures. In addition, there will be two potential low pressure systems that I will be watching. Both, as of now, look to be near misses, but the fun of tracking is back!

Right now, there is little agreement with the models about the storms, but as the week goes on and the time gets closer, I think we will begin to see them come around into better agreement.

National Weather Service Mt Holly Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ012>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-140300-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEW BRUNSWICK...
FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
306 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014

AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN, BEFORE MIXING
WITH SNOW, THEN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS OVERNIGHT. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES
IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

$$

ROBERTSON