January 22-24 Storm Monday Morning Discussion

First thing, all major models (GFS, EURO, and Canadian) still showing a very significant storm for our area. Timing is from Friday through Sunday morning. While all major models are showing a significant storm, they do vary on their track, strength and outcomes. Because of this, there is no sense in throwing out amounts or posting pretty snow maps......they are going to change 10 times up to the event. For now, know a significant storm is possible and preparations should start. Lets discuss the models and outcomes:

Over the next couple of days, I will be mentioning the models and their runs, for a brief overview of when they run and the times, here is the link: MODEL TYPE AND RUN TIMES (CLICK)

GFS

the Monday 0z GFS model run had an interesting solution which actually brings the low up close to the Jersey coast and would really limit our snowfall accumulation. An outcome like this would be a snow -> Mix/rain -> back to snow. Accumulations would really be limited. Biggest accumulations according to this model would be back around the PA/MD border where very heavy snowfall accumulations would fall

Then, the 6z run (most recent) brings the low over the Outer Banks of NC and then up further off the Jersey coast, brining the heaviest axis of snow more over the area. In fact, this model run has the low pressure crawling from the VA coast to the tip of Long Island very slowly over a 24 hour period, all while our area is getting pummeled with snow. This run would shift the heaviest access along route 95 including the major cities.

6 hours apart, and two different, distinct solutions, One of the reasons why forecasting amounts 5 days out is futile and silly.

Canadian

the 0z model run brings the low pressure from the NC/VA border up to Long Island, but keeps the heaviest axis of precipitation just NWof the rt 95 corridor. It does keep the low close enough to where the rain snow line would have to be monitored. It also drops a significant amount of precipitation, how much is snow will be the question.

EURO

While the other two models show a track from the VA coast up to Long Island, the Euro actually has the storm skirting along the Gulf States and then out to the SC/NC coastal border and from there up to the tip of Long Island. This would be a classic track for a rt 95 snow storm. This run would show a large swath of heavy snows through the major cities along rt 95.

As you can, there is a spread of different ideas based upon the models. Over the next couple days, we are hoping to see some run to run consistency and then agreement between the models on the overall track and strength. Its going to be a fun week, hopefully with a great ending!