The Week Ahead

So, I have gotten a couple questions on the rumors of a big snow storm for the weekend. The rumor was for 40"+ for NJ and we were going to get "epic" snows etc. Lets put this to bed now. It is not going to happen. First off, the map that everyone was looking at was a low resolution European model, that I have not even heard about until I saw the same graphic many of you did. In addition, it was a cumulative snowfall forecast from 3 days ago through Feb 12th. So, it would not be one storm, but over that period. While I am a firm believer on early warning and giving the heads up to people on impending storms, there is a time for tempered posts. If you are looking at one model run for a storm that is 11 days away, wouldn't you want to see some consistency with the model runs, and consistency with other models? None of those features happened and one run of the model ran like wildfire through social media. To me, its more important to to be right than hype. A storm 11 days away that does not have run to run consistency or other model support is pure hype. Its putting the goggles on for what YOU want to see. In any case, I am off this topic. 

We are transitioning now from a deep cold in which we were in the midst of the arctic trough. The trough will be relaxing back north and we are going to be heading into a more split flow across the area. This active pattern will lead the way on a number of storm chances coming up this week. The problem with this setup though will be the storm tracks and cold air. While our chances increase for storms, so does the volatility of the forecast. We are back into the challenging storm track, rain/snow line, mix precipitation etc. And, with the number of storms that will be present, long range forecasting will be challenged because everything will be based upon the setup from the previous storm. In other words, if a variable changes with storm 1, storm 2 will change on the models, along with storm 3 etc, etc. The best approach will be to take it one storm at a time. 

As of now, Saturday and Sunday both like nice, with temperatures well above freezing. Our next storm will impact the area on Monday, but the spread of solutions is still really wild. The GFS model keeps all precipitation to the south, will the NAM brushes S NJ, the Canadian is a bit further north and gives the area a period of light to moderate snow and the EURO is the furthest north and brings rain into the equation from about Philly East and route 78 south. So, my approach over the next week will be to take storms one at a time. The period looks active, but storms will be changing every run on the models. Stay tuned as I will be posting updates as needed!